Belarus rushes presidential elections amid opposition fears
The Belarusian parliament has announced that the presidential elections will take place in January, even though they had time to organise them until July. According to the opposition, this results from "fear of their own selection." As the former Belarusian ambassador to Poland, Pavel Latushka, says, an opposition candidate cannot run in the elections. "We have an atmosphere of fear and terror," he says in an interview.
During the session of the Belarusian parliament, it was announced that the presidential elections will be held on 26 January 2025. The Central Election Commission emphasised that it is "ready to start the election campaign," said its chairman Igor Karpenko.
Many commentators are surprised by this. According to the constitution, the government had time to organise the elections until 20 July. Meanwhile, it decided on them more than six months in advance. The authorities explain that the early elections are related to implementing a "five-year socio-economic development plan."
The opposition argues that such an early date indicates the regime's concerns. "It shows that there is a fear of their own (Alexander Lukashenko's - ed.) selection. He gave little time to form initiative groups of candidates, so that no competitors would be able to act or organise a campaign," says former Belarusian ambassador to Poland, Pavel Latushka, in an interview with Wirtualna Polska.
According to him, "only a madman can try" actual competition with Lukashenko. "It is simply impossible for any opposition candidate to run in the elections," he says. "There will probably be so-called spoilers, i.e., such a controlled opposition. Anyone else who would want to oppose Lukashenko guarantees themselves a straightforward path to prison," he emphasises.
He recalls that some candidates from the 2020 elections are in prison (such as Siarhei Tsikhanouski) or are in exile because staying in the country threatens them with being sent to penal colonies.
"We have an atmosphere of fear and terror"
"All opposition parties and independent media have been eliminated. Every day people are being detained and sentenced. We have an atmosphere of fear and terror. Just the day before yesterday, a woman, a mother of three, was detained for criticising Lukashenko on social media," he describes.
However, the opposition has a certain plan. "As a coalition of democratic forces, we know that the majority of society does not want Lukashenko. We will publish a strategy for them. We will propose using the 'election' day to come to the polls and vote against everyone," says Latushka.
He also indicates that the opposition will reach out to Belarusians living outside the country who have been deprived of their voting rights. "We will organise rallies in different parts of the world, including Warsaw. On the day of what Lukashenko calls elections, we will show our opposition," he says.
Russian military presence at the elections?
Latushka also points out another interesting issue. "The elections" have been announced just when the Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov arrived in Minsk. His Belarusian counterpart Viktar Khrenin announced during the meeting that joint military manoeuvres Zapad-2025 would be organised next year.
"These exercises will be the main event of the joint training of military command centres and forces in 2025 and will create conditions for further improvement of the existing military security system of the Union State," said Khrenin.
It is not yet known when exactly the exercises will take place. The opposition indicates that they may coincide with the presidential elections.
"It cannot be ruled out that these elections may take place under the control of Russia," says Latushka.
"Lukashenko is so afraid of society that it cannot even be ruled out that he will want the Russian army to be present in the country during the election," he adds.
The previous presidential elections in Belarus were held on 8 August 2021. Officially, Alexander Lukashenko received over 80% of the votes. However, the opposition and the international community considered that the results were falsified, pointing to numerous irregularities.
After the elections, a series of protests occurred, which were suppressed. As a result, many Belarusians ended up in prison. Some left the country.
