Winter hardships may sway Ukrainians toward territorial concessions

The Washington Post reported on Thursday that winter could significantly influence Ukrainians' attitudes towards territorial concessions to Russia. As noted, many Ukrainians are already weary of the nearly two-and-a-half-year-long war with Russia. They are open to making concessions if they receive guarantees of Ukraine's membership in NATO.

"The Washington Post" cited a senior Ukrainian official, who wished to remain anonymous and acknowledged that concerns about the upcoming winter are genuine. - My biggest fear is that people go through this kind of winter, there will be zero way to find consensus among the population - he told the newspaper.

The upcoming winter may prove to be the most challenging for Ukrainian society, not only due to the continuous Russian missile attacks but mainly because of damage to the country's energy infrastructure caused by the war lasting over two years.

Anton Hrushetskyi, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology director, confirmed these concerns. His team conducted research showing that this summer, about 32% of respondents were considering giving up territories occupied by Russia.

However, if Ukraine were to gain NATO membership, 57% of people would be willing to make such concessions. In May 2023, only 10% of those surveyed were ready to accept the loss of occupied lands.

- The burden of war, exacerbated by winter, changes people - summarised Hrushetskyi.

The Russians are targeting critical infrastructure, aiming for its collapse. According to the most optimistic scenario, Ukraine might experience up to four power outages per day over significant areas during winter. Another, darker scenario, involves more than 20 hours without power.

Some losses are being repaired on an ongoing basis. This year, the largest Ukrainian energy company, DTEK, reported that 90% of coal-fired power plants have been destroyed or damaged. - The company has set a goal to repair 70% of the damage before the onset of winter - informed its CEO Maksym Timchenko.

The European Union has committed to providing £225 million for the repairs. However, concerns about insufficient support from the West remain. Everyone in Ukraine remembers how the aid package for Ukraine got held up in the U.S. Congress last winter.

Delays in military support deliveries were said to have cost Ukraine nearly 9 gigawatts of energy, which was about half of the country’s energy capacity.

In summary, concerns about the upcoming winter remain unresolved, and the prospect of difficult months ahead only exacerbates them.