Vladimir Putin's crushing defeat in Ukraine, despite Russian army's successes

Ukrainians don't have much reason to celebrate on the second anniversary of the war's outbreak. An interruption in aid delivery from the US in the form of equipment, ammunition, and money has led to the Russian army gaining an advantage at the front. However, according to Rajan Menon, director of the Grand Strategy programme at the think tank Defense Priorities, Vladimir Putin will not ultimately prevail.

"As Carl von Clausewitz (Prussian general and war theorist) astutely observed, war is not essentially about killing people and destroying things: it is a means to achieve specific political goals. Those who initiate wars hope to find themselves in a better strategic position once the artillery fire has ceased. But even if this war ends with Russia retaining all the occupied Ukrainian land - a scenario that Ukrainians would find completely unacceptable - Moscow's position is set to worsen," writes Rajan Menon in "The New York Times".

"Regardless, Ukraine will follow its own path. For Putin, who is more concerned about Ukraine than any other country that emerged from the ruins of the Soviet Union, this alone signifies defeat," he adds.

Menon is a political scientist, director of the American think tank Defense Priorities and a researcher of war and peace at Columbia University. In his essay, he notes that if the primary purpose of the war in Ukraine was for Putin to keep Ukraine within the Russian orbit, then the conflict has backfired. Ukrainians, especially the younger generation, have resolved that their future lies with the West, not the Kremlin.

Rajan Menon highlights that the shift has not only occurred in Ukraine, but also in Europe. "The European Union, jolted by the invasion, has united in its support for Ukraine. The bloc, previously somewhat divided in its stance towards Russia, has nearly unanimously resisted Putin's act of aggression, with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban being the only dissenter," we read in the "NYT".

The researcher also underscores that Russia invaded Ukraine to curb NATO's eastward expansion. In the meantime, Finland has already joined the alliance, and Sweden looks set to follow suit.