Violence brews at home as Kremlin fears soldier return
The Kremlin is concerned about the return of soldiers from the front lines, fearing it could lead to a rise in violence within Russia, warns Polish Eastern Studies Institute (OSW) analyst Katarzyna Chawryło.
Data indicates that, since February 2022, between 300,000 and 800,000 Russian military personnel have been killed or wounded in the invasion of Ukraine. Those returning from the front often bring fear and bitterness back to their hometowns. In 2023, Russian courts convicted 116 soldiers of premeditated murder, a significant increase compared to previous years.
OSW analyst Katarzyna Chawryło highlights that the war has become a new norm for Russian society. "The war has become the norm and has been presented to society as a new reality. It is also seen as an opportunity to earn money and improve living standards or gain social advancement," she said on the programme "World According to Poland".
At the same time, the war is leading to an increase in violence within Russia. "On one hand, the authorities are aware of this because they do not permit mass rotation of soldiers. Those who joined the ranks and are on the front can return only for short leaves, as Russian society complains about them. However, there is no mass return of Russians from the front to their homes, except in body bags," Chawryło emphasised.
Soldiers degraded by war "completely evade social norms and are demoralised by combat." They often suffer from post-traumatic stress, and the state neither wants to address nor has aspirations to address these issues. Murders and rapes in their places of residence instil fear and paralysis in Russian society, the analyst reminded.
Chawryło stressed that all of Russia "is currently based on violence." "There is the authority over society, different institutions over society, parents over children, and husbands over wives. Violence is everywhere, and war violence, along with the permission for it, overlaps," she warned.
Russia seeks dialogue with the USA
The expert noted that the Kremlin has long been signalling a lack of readiness to negotiate with the Ukrainian authorities for a peace agreement. The Russians aspire to negotiate, for example, with the USA. This is why Vladimir Putin and his circle have pinned hopes on Donald Trump’s potential second term in the White House.
"Looking at the internal situation in Russia, a dangerous moment for the regime will be the return of all veterans and people degraded by war from the front. Putin is not interested in ending this war quickly, due to the social relations, tensions, and threat of a social explosion. Additionally, the entire state's military apparatus, arms industry, and security sector are set on a war footing. The authorities lack a prepared strategy for what to offer society in place of the war and how to manage the entire military sector. They may face an enormous problem with this," she emphasised.
Source: "Fakt"
