US air force faces rising challenges amid ageing fleet
The United States spends more on its military than the following ten countries combined in defence spending. Despite this, the U.S. Air Force—though still the strongest in the world—is underfunded. As a result, the aircraft fleet is ageing, and the number of available planes is gradually decreasing.
The future dominance of the U.S. in the air and its current capabilities are at risk. Although the U.S. Air Force remains the most powerful on the planet, it is gradually losing numbers, and the average age of combat aircraft is increasing.
The number of bombers, air tankers, transport planes, and training aircraft has remained roughly stable in recent years. However, there is a systematic decrease in the number of aircraft directly involved in combat—fighter and multirole aircraft, such as various versions of the F-15, F-16, F-22, and F-35 (the production of the latter does not cover the shortages resulting from the withdrawal of older models).
According to official budget data, in 2025 the USAF will have 1,295 of these aircraft, while (according to Statista) in 2024, they had 1,351, and in 2023 - 1,418.
This statistic is worsened by the fact that the number of specialised strike aircraft is also decreasing—the old A-10C machines are gradually being retired without a modern equivalent entering service. Their role is to be taken over by multirole aircraft (primarily the F-35).
Leaving aside the question of whether this is feasible at all (according to some U.S. commanders backed by tests, it's not), this leads to a situation where not only is the number of multirole aircraft declining, but these planes will also be burdened with additional tasks.
Aircraft older than their crews
Simultaneously, the average age of combat aircraft is increasing. Right after the end of the Cold War, in 1991, the U.S. Air Force had about 4,000 combat aircraft with an average age of slightly over eight years.
Currently—when there are three times fewer aircraft—their average age is 26-29 years. Slight fluctuations in this value are not due to generational changes but because the oldest aircraft in the statistics are phasing out, and they are not fully replaced by new planes.
Such a high age of aircraft generates additional problems—increasing maintenance costs and readiness issues. Currently—roughly since the mid-2010s—it is maintained at about 50 percent, meaning that in case of urgent need, only about every other aircraft listed in the statistics can be sent into combat.
What height should a pilot have?
Meanwhile, the Air Force has to deal with another unexpected challenge. Aircraft designed over half a century ago were optimised for pilots of slightly different dimensions—the average height has slightly increased over the decades.
Simultaneously, the Air Force struggles with a shortage of pilots, which hasn't been resolved for years. The number of vacancies reaches 2,000, so to increase the pool of potential candidates, height restrictions were lifted.
Until 2023, pilots—regardless of gender—needed to be taller than 1.62 metres and shorter than 1.96 metres (though there were exceptions to this rule). Because over 43 percent of potential female candidates for a career in the Air Force did not meet these requirements, the restrictions were lifted to limit the number of rejected applications.
As a result, candidates meeting the new requirements have limitations on the types of aircraft they can pilot. To solve this issue, the USAF had to implement additional anthropometric studies. Paweł Behrendt from Konflikty.pl explains their significance:
Rivals are not wasting time
The answer to these problems is new aircraft—especially since the specialised air superiority machine, the F-22 Raptor, is being phased out. Unfortunately, the production rate of new F-35s is insufficient. Although the F-35 remains a modern machine, it is worth noting that the first units entered service in 2016—are already nine years old, which is older than the average age of a combat aircraft in 1991.
Meanwhile, only 467 units have been delivered to the Air Force so far (as of the end of 2024). In 2025, there are expected to be 522 units, and in 2026—544. The current plan aims to reach a target of 1,763 delivered units by 2049.
There is no talk of a generational change—the production and delivery rate is so low that by the time the Air Force receives the last F-35s, the first batches of these aircraft will already be technological relics.
Meanwhile, dark clouds are gathering over the potential successor, which is expected to emerge from the NGAD programme. The problems are so severe that Andrew Hunter, Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics, stated in an interview:
American dominance
Although it sounds alarming, according to Chief of Staff of the U.S. Air Force David Alvin, Chinese progress in this field was achieved through stolen U.S. technology, which means that despite current issues, Americans still maintain aviation technology dominance.
These are not empty words. While rivals attempt with varying success (like Russia with the Su-57 or China with the J-20) to build a functioning 5th-generation fighter, Americans are phasing out the first type of such machines—the F-22 Raptor, which technologically outpaced the rest of the world by about 30 years.
The same is accurate for modern bombers—while building a machine like the B-2 Spirit remains a challenge for China or Russia, the United States has not only developed but also begun production of its successor in the form of the B-21 Raider.
Therefore, despite the problems plaguing the USAF, the American Air Force remains the largest aviation power in the world. Especially since, alongside the USAF, the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps also have their own air forces. However, if budget constraints continue for a prolonged period, the advantage developed over decades will gradually diminish.
