US Air Force faces critical pilot shortage and fleet decay
The Mitchell Institute report reveals a troubling truth about the US Air Force. For nearly 20 years, there has been a consistent shortage of about 2,000 pilots in the unit, with more than half of them being fighter pilots. Heather R. Penney, the report's author and a member of the first generation of US Air Force women trained as combat pilots, points out that the existing shortages "severely reduce the combat readiness of the US Air Force and their ability to conduct a war campaign at an equal level."
Heather R. Penney, also known as "Lucky," flew F-16 fighters for 10 years and participated in many patrol flights over Washington and two combat missions during her aviation career, including Operation Iraqi Freedom. "Lucky" and Colonel Marc "Sass" Sasseville also played a crucial role during the events of 11 September 2001.
The pilots were dispatched on an extremely dangerous mission to intercept United Airlines Flight 93, which was suspected to be heading for the Capitol. However, there was not enough time to arm their planes with live ammunition, so the only option was to ram the plane, which in practice meant sacrificing their lives. Ultimately, the passengers of United Airlines Flight 93 fought the hijackers, and during the struggle, the plane crashed in a field in Pennsylvania.
The report reveals shortages in the US Air Force
Currently, Penney is a member of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, where she deals with defence policy, research, and analysis. In her latest report "Want Combat Airpower? Then Fix the Air Force Pilot Crisis," she presents a rather grim picture of the current staffing state of the United States Air Force (USAF).
"The Air Force pilot corps is currently too small and poorly organised to maintain healthy combat forces that can win in a peer conflict and meet other national security requirements," notes Heather R. Penney in the document. She adds that the existing crisis extends across the entire pilot corps, but the shortage of fighter pilots is particularly acute, as it accounts for more than half of the missing personnel. Moreover, the shortages affect both the regular US Air Force, which includes full-time personnel, and reservists.
"Fighter aircraft play a crucial role in providing air superiority, suppressing and destroying air defences, engaging mobile and high-priority targets, and supporting troops in direct contact—all these missions are essential for the effective operation of combined armed forces," Penney reminds.
USAF problems
The US Air Force has long faced a chronic shortage of pilots. In 2024 alone, nearly 1,850 pilots were missing, and of these vacancies, 1,142 were for fighter pilot positions. Additionally, there are issues with an ageing aircraft fleet and its shrinking size. As WP Tech journalist Łukasz Michalik reported, according to official budget data, in 2025 the US Air Force will have 1,295 fighters, whereas (according to Statista data) in 2024, there were 1,351, and in 2023, there were 1,418 units.
Additionally, the age of the machines averages about 26–29 years for combat aircraft. All these elements impact costs and the readiness of the machines to operate. As Łukasz Michalik rightly pointed out, "from roughly the middle of the previous decade, it has been maintained at about 50 percent, which means that in the event of a sudden need, only about every second plane counted in the statistics can be sent to fight."
According to Heather R. Penney, the current situation of the US Air Force requires immediate action, including increasing the budget and resources for this unit. She believes it is necessary for the Air Force to increase its aircraft fleet, expand the pilot corps, and provide combat experience to its pilots—both those on active duty and reservists. In the report, Penney indicated that the Air Force must:
- Conduct an almost complete replacement of its combat aircraft fleet,
- Enhance its combat capability by expanding force structure,
- Develop and maintain a combat pilot corps in both the Active Component and Reserve Component, tailored to the size of the combat aircraft fleet, and create sufficient strategic depth to replace lost aircraft and personnel in combat.
