Ukrainian strike on Russian ammo depot triggers seismic tremors

George William Herbert from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, California, stated that the size of the largest explosion recorded in Toropets corresponded to the force of 200-240 tonnes of explosive charges.

The explosions in the Russian ammunition depot were so large that they were visible from space, and tremors measuring 2.8 on the Richter scale were recorded in the area.

Ukrainian intelligence representatives claim that the warehouses in Toropets contained Grad, S-300, and S-400 rockets and even ballistic missiles such as Iskander and North Korean KN-23. ISW analysts believe that destroying such large and valuable resources will cause significant problems for the Russians. They recall the 2022 Ukrainian attack (using HIMARS systems) on Russian ammunition depots in temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories, which forced Russian forces to scatter their supplies, significantly reducing the efficiency of their logistics.

According to ISW analysts, the final decision of the West regarding the use of long-range weapons by Ukrainians to attack targets on Russian territory will be crucial. The stance of key hesitating powers—the United States and the United Kingdom supplying Ukraine with ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles, respectively—is particularly important. These can effectively target objectives several hundred miles away, bypassing anti-aircraft systems.

"Russian forces may not have addressed vulnerabilities at many logistics facilities within Russia due to the sanctuary space that restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western-provided weapons have generated, although the Toropets facility is not within range of Western systems fired from Ukraine. The lifting of restrictions on the use of Western systems and the continued development of Ukraine's own long-range strike capabilities may allow Ukrainian forces to more effectively exploit such Russian vulnerabilities," notes ISW.

The attacked ammunition depot in Tver Oblast is located about 310 miles from the Ukrainian border. This is a distance that several models of Ukrainian drones can cover. Some sources suggest that, in this case, the accurate strike was carried out by a mysterious Palyanytsya, a project described as a combination of a missile and a drone. Ukrainians have never disclosed its specifications. Additionally, drones like Bober, Rubaka, and UJ-22 Airborne have long been used by them. ISW specialists believe that only when combined with Western weapons, will this arsenal be able to inflict losses on Russia that will prevent further offensives.

"Ukrainian strikes against facilities within Russia could impact offensive operations throughout the theatre in Ukraine if Ukrainian forces have the materiel, capabilities, and permission to conduct such a strike campaign against logistics and support facilities within Russia at scale," adds ISW.

For example, the Storm Shadow missiles are cruise missiles adapted for launching from aircraft. They provide incomparably more significant damage potential than drones. Each missile weighs about 1.3 tonnes, with around 1,000 pounds making up the BROACH (Bomb Royal Ordnance Augmented CHarge) warhead. The warhead can operate in various modes—a classic explosion on impact, an explosion in the air, or a delayed explosion. Additionally, they are manufactured with stealth technology. Their maximum range is about 310 miles.