Ukrainian drone strikes target Russian oil refineries, slashing revenues

In March, revenue from the sale of Russian oil dropped, according to a report by Kommersant, which bases its information on data from the International Energy Agency. The Interfax report indicated that export revenues from oil fell by 20%. The decline was, among other factors, attributed to attacks by Ukrainian troops on refineries.

The International Energy Agency data indicates that in March, the export of Russian oil and petroleum products increased by around 210,000 barrels per day compared to February, amounting to $7.84 million, as reported by Kommersant. However, in the same month, revenue from the export of Russian oil fell by 20% to $9.3 billion.

Attacks from Ukrainian forces on Russian refineries significantly influenced this situation. These attacks increased oil exports while simultaneously decreasing petroleum product delivery. Moreover, renovations in Russian refineries also caused a decrease in the supply.

For weeks, Ukrainian forces have been attacking Russian refineries with drones. Specifically, in March, the GUR and SBU confirmed that they had targeted refineries in Sloviansk in Krasnodar Krai, Novoshakhtinsk in the Rostov Oblast, as well as in Ryazan, Kstovo in the Nizhny Novgorod region, and Kirishi in the Leningrad Oblast. Media from both Russia and Ukraine also reported air strikes on refineries in Syzran and Novokuibyshevsk in the Samara region and a fire near a power plant in Petersburg.

At the beginning of April, Reuters estimated that the processing capabilities of Russian refineries, put out of operation in the first quarter of 2024 due to drone attacks, amounted to about 4.6 million tonnes of crude oil (an average of 370,500 barrels per day), which is equivalent to about 7% of the total processing capabilities of facilities in the country. Other reports mention a disruption of up to 10%.

CNN notes that advanced drones have made Ukrainian attacks on refineries possible. Some of these utilize artificial intelligence (AI), granting them full autonomy and enabling them to operate without communicating with commands during flight. As reported by an anonymous source from the Ukrainian drone development program, this feature enhances their reliability.