Ukrainian air defense shaken: Patriot system's vulnerability exposed

As defense analyst Jarosław Wolski wrote on his X profile, the Ukrainians probably lost at least three Patriot system launchers or – worse – two launchers and a command vehicle.

The Ukrainians had to move the medium-range air defense system to the Avdiivka region to protect against Russian aircraft releasing glide bombs from high altitude and several dozen miles away.

This resulted in numerous recent losses of Russian aviation. Unfortunately, as Jarosław Wolski points out, the Russians adjusted the transmission in drones, allowing them to transmit the positions of detected high-value targets, which are then quickly destroyed.

It seems that after months, the Russians have significantly improved the flaws in their so-called "chain of death," the process from detecting a target to destroying it. Another example is the M142 HIMARS recently lost by the Ukrainians.

If the Russians destroyed only three launchers, it is a relatively easy loss to recover from, since it suffices to assign three units from another battery and hope for the replenishment of losses by the West in the coming weeks or months. Worse if a radar or command vehicle, which forms the core of the entire battery, was destroyed. In such a case, its destruction renders the remaining launchers, although intact, useless.

The second issue is the difficulty in replacing such a loss, since command vehicles are rarer and – most importantly – are operated by a specialized crew whose expertise is invaluable.

Ukraine received three Patriot batteries (two from Germany and one from the USA) and - judging by MAN trucks - it was the one from Germany that fell victim to the Russians. Along with one SAMP/T system donated by France and Italy and Soviet-era S-300 systems, these are the only defenses for the Ukrainians against ballistic missiles, P-800 Oniks missiles, and especially high-flying aircraft releasing glide bombs.

The Patriot batteries provided by Germany and the United States are equipped with the AN/MPQ-53 radar system, capable of detecting targets within about 170 kilometres, as long as they are at altitudes above one kilometre. This means that the Patriot requires cooperation with short-range defense systems, such as NASAMS or Gepard, which are effective against low-flying targets such as maneuvering missiles or drones.

It's also important to note that the radar AN/MPQ-53 is a sectorial design with a detection field of 120 degrees, which means it struggles with attacks from various directions. A partial solution is the use of two radars providing a 240-degree coverage, but a complete answer to this challenge will be the new LTAMDS radars with 360-degree coverage, chosen by Poland, among others.

As for the types of missiles, Ukraine uses PAC-3 CRI models, which are a more economical version of the PAC-3 MSE, capable of destroying targets up to about 120 kilometres away for aircraft and about 40 kilometres for ballistic targets through direct kinetic hit. Older missiles such as PAC-2 GEM-T are also in use, with a range of up to about 160 kilometres and employing a traditional fragmentation warhead.