Ukraine's struggle: Effective against drones, vulnerable to ballistic missiles

The Russians conducted another attack using several dozen means of air assault, including drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. On the night of May 29 to 30, 2024, the Ukrainians managed to shoot down all 32 drones from the Shahed family launched by the Russians, and 7 out of 11 cruise missiles from the Kh-101 and Kh-55/555 families, but seven ballistic missiles, S-300/400 remained elusive.

Judging by the known trajectory of the missiles, this time, the main target of the Russians was the Starokostiantyniv airfield located about 300 kilometres west of Kyiv. Before the war, it was the central station for Su-24 aircraft carrying Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

Ukrainian air defence has already exhausted its stock of missiles for post-Soviet systems, and resupplies from Western countries are too small, especially in some categories.

Ukraine has received quite a few short-range systems. These include modern systems such as the IRIS-T SLM/SLS and NASAMS and older and still effective systems like the Aspide 2000 or Gepard. With Western help, Ukrainians integrated Western missiles with post-Soviet launchers, creating hybrids known as FrankenSAM.

However, the situation is worse for medium-range systems, the only ones capable of countering ballistic missiles. So far, Ukraine has received only four Patriot system batteries (three from Germany), one French-Italian SAMP/T battery, and old MIM-23 Hawk batteries. These are insufficient means, and efforts are being made with great difficulty to provide more systems. For example, the Netherlands is organising an initiative to acquire another Patriot battery, and Italy is considering providing a second SAMP/T battery.

For example, ballistic missiles like the Iskander-M travel in a ballistic trajectory, reaching speeds exceeding Mach 7 (over 2,000 metres per second), making them challenging to shoot down. They achieve such speed in the final phase of flight as they fall to the ground from higher parts of the atmosphere, making them a difficult target that only a few air defence systems can handle.

In such cases, systems like the Patriot are necessary. Still, a significant limitation is the small protected area, as the effective range for combating such targets is a maximum of about 40 kilometres from the launcher compared to aircraft, which can be countered at a distance of over 100 kilometres. Attempting to shoot down a ballistic missile with an interceptor can be compared to trying to "hit a needle with another needle," explaining why the cost of one PAC-3 MSE missile, estimated at £4-6 million, is unsurprising.

The current air defence systems are supposed to be countered by hypersonic missiles that can reach ballistic missile speeds while being capable of performing evasive manoeuvres. In theory, this was supposed to be the case for the new Russian Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles, but these turned out to be mere propaganda shells.

The second type of very difficult-to-shoot-down weaponry is supersonic cruise missiles like the Raduga Kh-22, which reach Mach 3, around 1,000 meters per second, flying at a low altitude. This allows them to avoid ground radars (detection range limited to about 40 kilometres due to the radar horizon) and gives air defence system operators little time to react. Additionally, not all missiles are capable of catching up with Kh-22.