Ukraine's sovereignty forecast amid territorial concessions
- Ukraine will lose part of its territory but will retain its sovereignty and independence, predicts Witold Jurasz, a former diplomat and currently a journalist and columnist for Onet programme. According to him, such a scenario is, contrary to common opinions, a success. The expert also assessed concerning statements made by Donald Trump.
Jurasz mentioned, among other things, Donald Trump's words of concern before his inauguration. The President-elect did not rule out the intervention of American troops in Greenland, which he perceives as part of the USA. He also stated that the Gulf of Mexico should be renamed the American Gulf and threatened to take control of the Panama Canal.
-This is something extraordinary. Of course, it can be explained as a negotiation strategy, that it's a method, and it's "cool" because, after all, we have a sheriff. But the problem is that the sheriff seems a bit unbalanced - Jurasz assessed.
He assessed that the White House's policy under Trump's rule will be unpredictable. According to him, even some members of his future administration do not fully understand what policy they must implement after 20th January.
Jurasz also shared unofficial reports suggesting that Donald Trump's physical condition is not the best. - Apparently, his functioning time during the day is not very long. The President is tired and goes to sleep. Naps during the day. Now the question is, who will be effectively leading American policy then? – wonders the guest of "Didaskalia".
End of the war soon? "They overbid"
Jurasz forecasts that the war in Ukraine will end in 2025. However, he adds that peace negotiations could be lengthy.
-A characteristic of Russian foreign policy (...) is that they overbid. This means that even if they have quite reasonable terms on the table, they do not go for a "deal" because they are deeply convinced they can gain even more - Jurasz states.
He pointed out that Trump has realised this too, as there are voices from his entourage that ending the military actions will take more time than the 24 hours promised during the election campaign.
As a result of the talks, assessments show that Ukraine will lose part of its territory but retain its sovereignty and independence. There are widespread voices in Poland that if it ends this way, meaning Ukraine does not recover all territories, it will fail. This is not true because the very fact that Ukrainians are defending themselves in a war against a nuclear superpower is a success, Jurasz said.
- And Secondly, it is in our interest that they believe it is a success, and not that we convince them it is a failure because it is in our interest that Ukraine comes out with a sense of satisfaction, not a sense of defeat - added the expert.
Breakthrough in the case of exhumations in Volhynia? Expert cools optimism
Patrycjusz Wyżga also asked his guest about one of Donald Tusk's recent posts. The Prime Minister stated that there was a "breakthrough" in the matter of exhumations of Poles murdered by UPA.
Jurasz, in response, cited a concept presented to him in a conversation by the new head of the Polish embassy in Kyiv, Piotr Łukasiewicz. It assumes that Poland "separates the issue of exhumations from the issue of commemorations".
- Translating this from diplomatic to everyday language, it boils down to the fact that the victims will be buried, but it will not necessarily say who murdered them. In that case, it will not be a breakthrough because it would mean that Russia has gone further than Ukraine; in the Katyń cemetery, it is written who murdered the people buried there, and in the Volhynian cemeteries, as I understand it, there will be no such inscription – Jurasz assessed.
- Considering the help (that Poland provided to Ukraine after the outbreak of full-scale war - red.), one could expect something more from the Ukrainian side - he summed up.
