Ukraine's looming ammunition crisis threatens urban defence capabilities

The American newspaper "Washington Post", citing two Ukrainian officials, reported that Ukraine is running low on ammunition to the point where it might run out of anti-aircraft missiles for city defence by the end of this month. This could significantly limit the operation of Ukrainian air defence systems. An expert commented, "It is hard to believe that their stock of missiles will drop to a critical level within, as reported, two weeks."

During a security conference, Ukrainian officials shared their concerns about dwindling ammunition supplies with the "Washington Post". They pointed out that with shrinking supplies, Ukrainians might have to shift from attempting to shoot down four out of five Russian missiles, as is currently the case, to only one out of five. This, they fear, will significantly impact Ukrainian urban centres.

The newspaper also quoted a senior advisor to the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky who said, "People do not understand how bad the situation is on the front right now. Morale is low, momentum is low. Young men are afraid they will be mobilised only to die due to a lack of weapons". He also expressed concern that without new aid from the United States, there's a considerable risk of significant Russian territorial gains by summer.

Szymon Tetera, editor-in-chief of the monthly magazine "Aviation", told WP Tech: "The information regarding how many missiles Ukraine has is classified as top secret of special importance". He doubts that Washington Post journalists have access to this data and suggests that the two officials they cite might be trying to secure additional supplies by playing their own game. Especially since Ukraine faces increasing pressure due to the need for ammunition and military equipment, and the bill proposing $60 billion (£49 billion approx.) in American foreign aid is stalled in Congress.

Moreover, Tetera points out it's unlikely the ammunition for all anti-aircraft defence systems is depleting at the same rate. Some Soviet-origin systems may be more affected due to a significant shortfall in the market for their missiles, which NATO countries don't produce. "It's known the situation is particularly dire for the 9K37 Buk system. Nevertheless, Western countries are supplying ammunition for their own production air defence systems, including the most modern ones, which are the most effective," he explained.

The war in Ukraine, described by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg as "a battle of ammunition", demonstrates the immense need for supplies. Kyiv regularly calls on the West for missile deliveries, but supplies and production capabilities are limited. For example, Ukraine requires about 200,000 155 mm calibre artillery shells per month. For comparison, the European Commissioner for Internal Market Thierry Breton announced during his January visit to Estonia that by the end of 2024, the European Union aims to produce over 1.3 million artillery shells, with production capacities set to increase significantly in 2025. Most of these will be sent to Ukraine, but Europe must also consider its own needs.

Defence One reports that the United States plans to boost the production of 155 mm calibre artillery shells from 28,000 per month (data for October 2023) to 37,000 in April 2024 and 60,000 in October 2024. By 2025, production is expected to reach approximately 75,000 shells in April and 100,000 shells in October. However, these are just forecasts, and the issue extends beyond just 155 mm calibre artillery shells.