Ukraine conflict entering prolonged stage as Russia eyes full subordination, Latvian report warns

The document, debated by the LETA agency on Monday, suggests that Russia won't let go of its 2024 objective to fully subordinate Ukraine.

The Latvian services report tells us that the Russian authorities are confident they possess the military prowess to maintain a drawn-out conflict. As such, the Russian strategy is to persist with the conflict until Ukraine can no longer withstand it.

Putin's regime assesses that the West has grown weary of war and is unprepared to support Ukraine over extended periods. The regime also believes that the Russian forces are triumphing - the SAB added. Therefore, the Russian elite believes now is the ideal time to feign readiness to start peace negotiations with Ukraine. This tactic aims to bring the conflict to an end in a position of apparent strength.

Simultaneously, Russia is aiming to buy time to augment its military. Even if a ceasefire were enacted, the Kremlin would strike Ukraine again after reinforcing its forces - the Latvian services presume.

The SAB report highlights Russia's extensive military spending and the mobilisation of its military complex. Several divisions are reportedly already outputting more than the entirety of the EU. However, challenges involving skilled personnel and dependence on Western technologies were also noted.

Russia intends to develop its army further in the upcoming years and increase its presence around Europe, including the northern and Baltic states.

If aid to Ukraine isn't augmented, the Kremlin may construe this as having sway over the West, which could potentially enhance Russia's imperialist aspirations - the SAB warns.

The services underlined that the Russian army would have acquired vast combat experience, including engagements against Western machinery. This experience and planned military expansion significantly elevate the risk of potential Russian military aggression towards NATO.

The SAB indicates that Russian elites are increasingly discussing "life after Putin", potential future leaders, and how to maintain influence after the potential shift in power. However, no active arrangements for an imminent change in the presidency have been noted.

It's unlikely that the political elite will turn against Putin, as widespread dismay about the conflict, its outcomes, or the president himself isn't common - the Latvian services suggest. The report underlines that the elite view the conflict in practical terms as a means to fortify their position and gain better access to resources.

SAB noted that similar debates about "life after Putin" have intensified before, particularly when it was unclear how Putin planned to retain his influence.