Turkstream tensions: Europe's energy gateway in jeopardy

The security of the TurkStream gas pipeline is a priority for Russia today. When on 11 January, the Ministry of Defence announced that Ukraine had attempted to destroy the compressor station in the Krasnodar region using drones, which pumps Russian gas into the TurkStream system, the Kremlin reacted strongly.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called attacks on gas infrastructure a crime and blamed the United States for being behind the Ukrainian action. Neither Washington nor Kyiv has commented on these allegations.

However, not only in Moscow did the prospect of interrupting the gas flow through this line raise concerns. Both Hungary and Slovakia reacted. Hungary's Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto spoke of an attack on sovereignty, and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico embarked on a mission to Turkey. Why is TurkStream so important?

After the expiration of the agreement to transit Russian natural gas through Ukrainian territory, and Kyiv's firm refusal to extend it, TurkStream became the last gateway for Russian gas to the European market.

The gas currently flows into the EU through pipelines from Turkey to Bulgaria at two points. The vast majority (over 90 percent) is transported from Russia through the underwater TurkStream pipeline, from which gas reaches Bulgaria at the Strandja 2 point. A small portion of Turkish exports of Russian gas also comprises Russian gas, brought in by the underwater Blue Stream pipeline and transmitted to Bulgaria at the Strandja point, explains Dr Kamil Lipiński from the Polish Economic Institute.

It consists of two segments, with a total capacity of 31.5 billion cubic metres of gas annually, with each line capable of transmitting 15.75 billion cubic metres. The first line delivers gas from Russia across the Black Sea to the European part of Turkey, and the second line is designated for the markets of Southern and Southeastern Europe (Bulgaria, Greece, and North Macedonia). This route is also used by Hungarians and Austrians, and Slovakia is also seeking to increase supplies (to replace gas imported through Ukraine).

As Dr Lipiński recalls, in the first half of 2024, the level of technical utilisation of Turkish transit capacity was 69 percent, rising to 79 percent in the second half of 2024, including 86 percent in the TurkStream pipeline.

- The level of utilisation of Russian gas transfer possibilities from Turkey was already around 82 percent in the first three weeks of January 2025. This is significantly more than in January 2024 (66 percent). There is thus potential for increased transfer, but it is not considerable - especially since the gas will later have to be transmitted through the Bulgarian, Serbian, and Hungarian transmission systems, he pointed out.

Through TurkStream, with the entry point at Strandja 2 on Bulgarian territory, about 37 percent of Russian-origin gas continues to reach the EU.

It is in this where the interests of many parties intersect. For Moscow, it is clearly a channel through which it can still sell its gas to Europeans, and finance its budget strained by war and sanctions. After the failure of the NordStream 2 project and the damage to NordStream 1, the cessation of supplies through Yamal (end of December 2022), closure of the route through Ukraine, and finally sanctions on Russian LNG, only the route through Turkey remains.

For Hungary, it is an important route to receive cheaper resources. According to Reuters, citing data disclosed by Szijjártó, Hungary received 6.7 billion cubic metres of gas through TurkStream in 2024. For this reason, the PIE expert argues that most Russian gas imported through TurkStream will not reach Slovakia.

Bulgaria and Serbia, which also utilise Russian supplies, also earn from its transit, but in 2023, Serbia became independent of Gazprom's monopoly, due to supplies from Azerbaijan.

Ultimately, it is in the so-called southern gateway that the Slovak Prime Minister places his hopes. This country is almost entirely dependent on imports of blue fuel. Domestic production covers barely 1 percent of the demand, which averages 5 billion cubic metres of gas annually. Up until now, Russia has played a key role as a supplier.

Slovakia has an agreement with Moscow, signed with Gazprom, covering deliveries until 2028. These were expected to flow continuously through Ukraine via the southern "Friendship" mainline.

The Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhhorod gas pipeline, with an entry point at Sudzha, capable of pumping up to 40 million cubic metres of gas daily, will be closed to Russian resources. Until now it accounted for 35 percent of imports from Russia. For them, the government in Bratislava has bowed to Putin's demands and agreed from 2022 to pay Moscow for resources in roubles.

After Kyiv turned off the tap, the Prime Minister attacked Ukraine, even issuing an ultimatum to cut off its electricity supply if it did not restore deliveries. Eventually, Fico went to meet with Putin. It was in the Kremlin that he reportedly received guarantees that Russia would deliver gas according to the agreement, despite transit issues through Ukraine.

However, alternative routes through Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary are key to this.

Although Slovakia theoretically has other channels through which it could obtain gas for its own needs, from the Czech Republic, Germany, or even Poland, it does not want to use them. For one, it loses the lucrative role as a transit state, and two, Russian resources are simply cheaper.

It is important to remember that TurkStream, even if it supplies gas, will not replace Slovakia's substantial earnings from the transit of Russian gas, sent by Gazprom through Ukrainian and Slovakian territory to Central and East-Central Europe, estimated at 400-500 million euros annually, notes Dr Lipiński.

Therefore, after visiting Moscow, Robert Fico went to Ankara (20 January) to seek the help of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. According to Bloomberg, the Turkish leader agreed to mediate in negotiations between Slovakia and Russia to find a solution.

- Let's take a step, Erdogan stated during a joint press conference in Ankara. He assured Robert Fico that Turkey's foreign minister would contact Russia, while he himself would talk with President Vladimir Putin. - Let's reach a conclusion on Slovakia’s natural gas needs, he assured.

This is an excellent opportunity for Erdogan, who can thus pursue the dream of a great gas hub. Let us recall that as early as December 2023, he declared that his country could supply European countries with 30-40 billion cubic metres of natural gas annually.

He maintained that the potential is much greater since Turkey could, thanks to further agreements, supply the EU market with up to 100 billion cubic metres of gas in a few years. He did not hide that part of this gas would be Russian resources.

In fact, there was nothing to hide, as Vladimir Putin personally proposed to Erdogan during a meeting in Astana in October 2022 to build a large gas hub in Turkey with a new gas route to Europe through the Black Sea. Moscow already wanted to redirect the lost gas traffic from the Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 routes to the southern corridor. Although the second underwater gas pipeline was not built, Turkey and Russia signed long-term contracts for natural gas supplies.

The course set by Brussels called for abandoning Russian gas. Further sanctions imposed on Moscow removed previous directions. Turkey is striving to ensure that its "package" includes not just Russian resources, but also gas from other suppliers such as Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, or LNG from the USA.

What seemed impossible two years ago is coming to fruition today. By asking Turkey for Russian gas, Slovakia is fulfilling the dreams of Erdogan and Putin.