Trump's return: A new dilemma for Ukraine's stalemate
The victory of Donald Trump in the presidential elections, the collapse of the Ukrainian front, problems with arms supplies, and dreadful morale in the worst battle areas, where one-fifth of the soldiers deserted. The Economist outlines the future of Ukraine, which finds itself in a "bloody stalemate."
"The return of Donald Trump to the White House could be Ukraine's worst nightmare," the article reads. The new US president consistently avoids condemning Putin's invasion, "expresses admiration for his style of governance, and in the past, tried to blackmail Ukraine by withholding military aid."
The front has collapsed. Morale at rock bottom
However, despite these concerns, many high-ranking Ukrainian officials "were counting on Trump's victory, seeing it as an opportunity to change the situation." President Volodymyr Zelensky immediately congratulated Trump, expressing growing frustration with the Biden administration.
"Trump's victory could, however, offer Zelensky a way out of what at best looks like a bloody stalemate, at worst like a defeat," writes The Economist.
Currently, Ukraine is critically assessing the American decision to refuse the use of long-range missiles on Russian territory. This is compounded by delays in military aid deliveries and the lack of solid security guarantees.
Will Trump sell Ukraine to Putin?
"Trump, although transactional in his political style, might offer Ukraine alternative solutions. During the election campaign, he promised to end the war within 24 hours, although it is unclear how he would achieve this. Ukraine considers two possible scenarios: freezing the conflict without security guarantees, as proposed by J.D. Vance, or the more preferred plan by Kyiv from Mike Pompeo, based on strengthened military support and opening the way to NATO,” the article reads.
The authors of the material believe that Trump "is unlikely to completely sell out Ukraine, considering the position of his voters."
The change of power in the USA comes at a difficult moment for Ukraine. After a year of fighting, Ukraine recently suffered its largest territorial losses since 2022, losing 620 square kilometres. Russia is accelerating the offensive, operating on many fronts.
It is likely that Ukraine will be forced to withdraw from strategic areas around the city of Kurakhove in the Donetsk region, which could open the way for the Russians to the "psychologically significant entry into the Dnipropetrovsk region by the end of the year."
One-fifth of soldiers deserted
The Economist writes that trust between society, the military, and Ukraine's political leadership is collapsing, making it difficult to replenish losses at the front through conscription – Ukraine reaches only two-thirds of the planned numbers.
Russia, on the other hand, replenishes its losses with contracts, with no need for mass mobilisation.
Commanders admit that Ukrainian troops' morale is collapsing on the heaviest sections of the front. A source in the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine admitted that nearly one-fifth of soldiers have left their positions.
As the British newspaper believes, the still-awaited deliveries of American weapons may give Ukraine time for further resistance, but financial and logistical pressures may affect Ukraine, possibly within six months.
The article reads that Trump is likely to seek a peace deal before taking office, but Putin's stance remains an unknown variable. Russian sources send mixed signals about whether Russia is ready to freeze the conflict or seek the full capitulation of Ukraine.
Russia continues its pressure strategy, trying to destroy Ukraine's energy infrastructure, especially during the winter period. "They will try everything," says former Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko, pointing to possible attempts on Ukraine's leadership.
