Trump's renewed dialogue with Kim meets geopolitical hurdles
Will Donald Trump look favourably on the North Korean regime and resume dialogue with Kim Jong Un? According to Dr Nicolas Levi, this is very likely. However, this does not mean that North Korean troops will leave Ukraine. "North Korea will not withdraw its forces," says the expert.
Donald Trump was the first President of the United States to have close relations with the leader of North Korea. The North Korean dictator met the American politician three times. The first meeting took place in 2018 in Singapore, followed by a second in 2019 in Hanoi.
The third and last visit occurred in the Demilitarized Zone on the Korean Peninsula on 30 June 2019. This involved a symbolic crossing of the North Korean border by Trump. Kim Jong Un, in return, received an invitation to Washington.
Ultimately, relations between North Korea and the USA worsened after Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 presidential elections. However, could another victory for the Republican candidate mean that Kim Jong Un might again appear in the circles of American politics?
Yes, it is certainly possible. Many refugees from the DPRK support Trump's policy towards the regime. Why? Because it renews dialogue between the powers. The longer we talk with Pyongyang, the more we distance ourselves from the risk of conflict escalation," Dr Nicolas Levi, assistant professor at the Institute of Mediterranean and Oriental Cultures of the Polish Academy of Sciences, tells us.
A specialist in North Korean and Asian politics explains that he would not vote for Donald Trump in the elections, but his policy towards Kim's regime is correct.
I think easing tensions is the only right concept. This way, the regime may agree, for example, to the presence of American media in the country. It's a gradual, slow revolution over generations, but possible. Easing tension is better in this case than escalation. It leads nowhere," Dr Levi adds.
At the same time, the success of Donald Trump's strategy depends on the approach of the North Korean authorities. Unlike the years 2018-2019, Russia is now in play.
North Korea will certainly not withdraw its forces from Ukraine. It is also unknown if the Pyongyang authorities will agree to talks with the USA at all. Let's remember the partnership agreement between Russia and North Korea. The Russian authorities may categorically forbid Koreans from talking to the United States," the expert points out.
Dr Nicolas Levi emphasises that Russian pressures may not necessarily be effective. North Korea has repeatedly shown that it does not care about the opinions of world powers. It has displayed its insubordination, among others, towards China.
Is Donald Trump's victory good news for Kim Jong Un?
It turns out that Kim Jong Un might be pleased with Donald Trump's victory, as it is a chance to end North Korea's isolationist policy on the international stage. Dr Levi admits that "now the country will become a partner for dialogue, rather than a political hooligan or a mafia state."
Trump will want to renew talks, and thanks to this, the DPRK will become a partner for discussions, rather than being a mafia state or political hooligan with whom one should not talk," explains the expert from PAN.
How, in turn, will China, which traditionally stands behind North Korea, receive Donald Trump's victory? Beijing's strategy will be to wait for the course of events.
Beijing will primarily wait for the official US and Donald Trump's strategy towards Taiwan. Could they trade the peninsula? I don't think so. In that case, China could gain access to, among other things, microchips, and that would be painful for American business," Dr Levi explains.
The scientist from PAN also points out that "the topic of North Korea is also linked with expectations from South Korea."
It is worth noting that Donald Trump's policy might involve the withdrawal of the US army from the Korean Peninsula," Dr Nicolas Levi concludes in the interview.
