Trump's bold drone vision challenges costly NGAD path

The primary air superiority aircraft of the United States Air Force remains the F-15 Eagle. Although continuously modernised, it dates back to the 1970s. Consequently, even the latest F-15EX variant lacks many features of so-called fifth-generation aircraft, most importantly stealth capabilities.

This issue was recognised as early as the 1980s. Through the ATF programme, the more modern F-22 Raptor was developed, offering safer mission execution due to its stealth, greater cruising speed (including "supercruise"), and exceptional manoeuvrability. Unfortunately, due to budget constraints, only 187 of these aircraft were purchased by the USAF instead of the planned 750, leaving the modernised but not new F-15 as the mainstay.

In the meantime, new technologies have emerged: drones, early versions of artificial intelligence, and increasingly potent radar systems. To maintain a competitive edge, the USA demanded a new aircraft: the NGAD.

The NGAD programme, launched in 2014 under the IDI designation, was intended to yield an entirely new aircraft. In reality, it wasn't meant to be just an aircraft but a complete air combat system. The aircraft's concept evolved over time. Initially, a "better Raptor" was anticipated, followed by the idea of a "new series of the century," and then two different combat aircraft: a larger, long-range variant for the Pacific theatre and a smaller one for European engagements.

Eventually, it was decided on an extremely advanced, relatively large aircraft with long-range capabilities, advanced sensors, stealth features, and innovative engines. Nonetheless, the NGAD's most crucial feature was to be its role as the centrepiece of an entire air combat system, including optionally manned heavy machines and several types of accompanying drones. These drones would enhance the aircraft's capabilities by carrying additional sensors, electronic warfare systems, and finally, weaponry, thereby increasing pilot safety and the security of the expensive—estimated at up to $300 (£245) million each—manned aircraft.

To date, at least three different test models have flown, but no photos or detailed information about the tests have been released. Ultimately, it all comes down to costs.

On 13th January 2025, USAF Secretary Frank Kendall stated that the research and development phase of the NGAD programme, excluding the separately developed CCA programme for accompanying unmanned machines, was expected to cost around $20 (£16) billion. Given the tendency to exceed budgets, it would likely be much more.

The aircraft itself was estimated, as noted earlier, to cost around $300 (£245) million, with a planned purchase of approximately 200 aircraft. For comparison, the F-35A costs American taxpayers about $100 (£82) million, while the new generation heavy bomber B-21 Raider is expected to cost around $500 (£410) million each.

Unsurprisingly, the programme was paused a few months ago to reassess certain assumptions, evaluate the rationale behind the projected costs, and verify the anticipated efficiency of the aircraft. Certainly, the election period did not simplify matters: the decision on the NGAD's future is to be taken by the new administration. Although it will assume office on 20th January right after the elections, one of its most prominent representatives has expressed very strong opinions on the USAF's strategies.

In November, Elon Musk, a billionaire, owner of numerous technology companies, and recently an avid gamer, proclaimed that the future of aviation belongs solely to drones, disparaging buyers of the multi-purpose fifth-generation F-35 aircraft as fools.

Due to his close collaboration with President-elect Donald Trump and his anticipated significant role in the future U.S. administration, Musk's words ignited lively debate. Most experts critically received this statement. Kendall himself was diplomatic with Musk, respecting his engineering and business achievements while noting that he is not a "warfighter" and should learn more about this business before making such statements.

Indeed, within the NGAD concept (and other "future air combat systems" like FCAS/SCAF, GCAP), drones are intended to play a significant but not dominant role. The air forces of most countries still maintain that humans are needed near the "front lines" to supervise combat. Of course, the future co-chair of the Government Efficiency Department (a Trump-foreseen oversight body) will attempt to influence changes in USAF plans, but how successful he will be remains to be seen.

Given financial constraints, the NGAD programme might indeed require significant redesign. During Monday's (13th January) speech, Kendall suggested several different options.

One option would be a smaller, cheaper aircraft, which, according to the USAF Secretary, would likely be "something like a successor to the F-35." Its primary role would be managing unmanned machines rather than engaging in independent combat. It could even be an adapted F-35. Success would hinge on reducing the weight of its weaponry to increase fuel reserves, alongside upgrading avionics.

An alternative approach is possible: since the B-21 Raider is relatively inexpensive, already in production, and a known entity, perhaps this strategic bomber could serve as the air superiority platform? USAF Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin indicated in October 2024 that the bomber could perform certain air combat functions, especially in managing unmanned aircraft, acting as a server for them, and so forth.

It could also fulfil a more conventional role. According to the USAF, one alternative to building a successor to the F-22 and F-15 could be focusing on capabilities for strikes behind enemy lines, including air bases. Eliminating aircraft on the ground is even safer than engaging in air combat.

In this scenario, the B-21 would simply carry cruise missiles (from the JASSM family, but also strategic LRSO), bolstering the USAF's efforts to secure air dominance. Interestingly, the B-21 is projected to optionally carry air-to-air missiles. Thus, instead of a large and expensive air superiority aircraft, the USAF might receive an even larger and more costly one.

Regardless, a shift away from manned aircraft is not anticipated in the near future. The dilemma persists concerning the entire future model of air dominance according to the USAF. It is currently understood that a combination of manned and unmanned machines will be deployed. But which ones? This largely depends on the funding the Pentagon can expect under the new administration, verification of the NGAD programme's assumptions, and which lobbyists will prevail.

Deputy Kendall, Andrew Hunter, appears to advocate for the continuation of NGAD, noting in a recent interview that while the USAF's advantage over its Chinese competitors is currently substantial, their progress is rapid and it is conceivable that the Chinese could achieve certain capabilities sooner. What will Trump do about it? The near future will reveal.