Transnistria chills as Ukraine blocks Russian gas flow
The first victims of the new phase of the gas crisis are the residents of pro-Russian Transnistria, with Slovakia and Hungary also potentially facing difficulties. However, it doesn't stop there. The issue of halting the transit of Russian gas through the Ukrainian pipeline could become a bargaining chip in talks about Ukraine's future and a ceasefire.
"To keep the room warm, seal the cracks in the windows and balcony doors, hang blankets or thick curtains over them. Place all family members in one room, temporarily closing the rest of the rooms" – is the advice for residents of the separatist and pro-Russian Republic of Transnistria. On 1st January, Ukraine stopped the transit of Russian gas, and residents of the region, detached from Moldova, had their central heating and hot water turned off.
For now, heating has been turned off for 14 days, and what happens next is unknown, according to announcements from the energy company Tirasteploenergo. Transnistria is still being saved by favourable weather forecasts. During the day, temperatures are expected to be 8-10 degrees Celsius, but on Saturday night, the temperature in the capital of Transnistria, Tiraspol, is expected to drop to -5 degrees Celsius. People are advised to gather in one room and use electric heaters, but only with moderation to avoid fires and overloading the electrical grid – report media in neighbouring Moldova.
Let's recall that in 2022, the Russian gas giant Gazprom released a propaganda film where the EU countries were shown descending into chaos and cold. "Winter will be harsh" – was stated in Gazprom's materials. The footage showed ice-bound cities, EU flags, and a gas stove's flame extinguishing. The material was interpreted as blackmail by Vladimir Putin, whose country was hit by sanctions for the war in Ukraine.
Gas not flowing. Russia's last clients in trouble
Today, the Russians admit they've lost the ability to sell gas through a third pipeline leading westwards (the Baltic Nord Stream has been damaged, and the Yamal pipeline through Poland has been turned off). "Due to the repeated and explicit refusal of the Ukrainian side to extend these agreements, Gazprom was deprived of the technical and legal possibility to supply gas for transit through the territory of Ukraine starting from January 1, 2025" – stated the company in a communication. They blame Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelensky and politicians from Kyiv decided not to extend the agreement so that "Russia would incur financial losses" and lose one of the sources for funding the war.
- It's hard to extend commercial agreements when rockets fall on Kyiv – comments Wojciech Jakóbik, an energy expert from the Polish Energy Security Centre. – Russians are left with gas supplies through Turkey and the Balkans, but this route will not replace supplies through Ukraine. The remaining clients of Gazprom: pro-Russian Slovakia and pro-Russian Hungary are in trouble. The authorities of these countries have only themselves to blame, as the official EU policy mandates moving away from Russian resources by 2027. Everyone was preparing for it, but they wanted to stick with Russian gas – explains Jakóbik.
The analyst indicates that the European Commission has secured gas reserves in storage, which will help overcome potential issues. Furthermore, Poland has alternative gas delivery routes through Baltic Pipe and the LNG terminal in Świnoujście. – The most important thing is that the gas price on the international exchange is 50 euros (41 pounds) per MWh, which is about six times less than during the gas crisis caused by Russia in 2021, – emphasises Wojciech Jakóbik. – It's Russia and puppet Transnistria that have a problem. It's a pity for the people, who are suffering the consequences of their elites' dependence on Russia – he adds.
Whom does the gas crisis affect?
Wojciech Jakóbik emphasises that Slovakia can buy gas shipped via Poland. In his opinion, there have been no decisions made in this regard, as the Slovak government "deliberately wanted to remain with Russian fuel.” At the end of December, the Slovakian prime minister went for a meeting with Vladimir Putin.
The situation has become most complicated in Moldova and separatist Transnistria. Cutting off gas supplies from Ukraine led to reduced electricity production at the GRES power plant in Transnistria. From this source, 70 percent of Moldova's electricity consumption used to come. However, Kamil Całus, an analyst at the Polish Centre for Eastern Studies, thinks that Moldova has smoothly gotten through the first day of the energy crisis. The country managed to avoid outages.
"About 45 percent of Moldova's energy was sourced locally, and over 50 percent came from Romania. Energy was imported both through bilateral contracts with the Romanian nuclear plant operator and on the energy exchange. Shutdowns should be avoided. The Romanian operator has already contracted adequate capacities" – commented Całus in a post on Portal X.
Analysts expect Ukraine's decision to be the last chord in the downfall of Gazprom, which recorded seven billion dollars (5.65 billion pounds) in losses for the first three quarters of last year. The industry anticipates deepening these in its financial results for the full year 2024. In its heyday, the Russian company exported 180 billion cubic metres of gas to the West. Recently, only 15 billion cubic metres was shipped through Ukraine. If EU sanctions cover Russian LNG deliveries, it might turn out that direct Russian resource supplies will disappear from Europe.
- However, a plot twist cannot be ruled out, and some form of Ukrainian-Russian agreement on gas transit might occur. I believe the gas card will be an important element of negotiations in broader talks about Ukraine's future, a ceasefire, expected after a change in the U.S. presidential administration, – summarises Wojciech Jakóbik.
How does Russia comment on the issue?
"This move to cease the supply of competitive and environmentally friendly Russian source of energy both diminishes Europe’s economic potential and severely affects the quality of life for European citizens. The geopolitical context behind the Kiev regime’s decision is obvious, with the United States being the primary beneficiary of the redistribution of the energy market in Europe as well as the core sponsor of the Ukrainian crisis. Now other nations that were once part of the economically thriving and independent European Union will also bear the consequences of the US sponsorship," – stated Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on Thursday. In a comment posted on the ministry's website, she calls Ukraine's decision a "predatory strategy," victimising Germany.
Many pieces of information presented by Russian media or authorities are elements of propaganda. Such reports are part of the information war led by the Russian Federation.
