Russia's dwindling tank reserves: Strategy shift in Ukraine
Russia is reducing its use of armoured vehicles in Ukraine due to dwindling Soviet-era reserves. According to the ISW, at the current rate of attrition, these resources will be exhausted before the end of 2026.
The Russian armed forces in Ukraine are limiting the use of armoured vehicles to preserve equipment in light of declining Soviet-era reserves. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) predicts that, given the current rate of losses, the resources may be depleted before the end of 2026.
Ukrainian military sources have observed that Russians are deploying fewer armoured vehicles and conducting fewer mechanised attacks towards the city of Kurakhove. This trend follows significant losses incurred by the invading troops in October and November 2024, ISW reported.
Russian forces have switched to using infantry for assaults on this front section. Armoured vehicles are now employed solely as fire support for infantry attacks, noted the Institute, citing sources in the Ukrainian army.
The state of Russian reserves
The British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) reported in February 2024 that Russia could likely sustain such a high level of armoured vehicle losses for two or three years, at most until early 2027, mainly due to refurbishing vehicles from Soviet-era storage.
Sources analysing satellite images provided an updated assessment at the end of December last year regarding the state of Russian tank and armoured vehicle storage. According to these reports, the Russian army holds 47% of its pre-war tank reserves and 52% of its combat vehicle reserves, ISW noted.
It seems increasingly unrealistic that the Russian military will be able to maintain the current annual loss rate of nearly 9,000 armoured vehicles until 2025. This rate is almost three times higher than the annual loss rate in the first two years of the war, suggesting that the IISS estimates from 2024 are already outdated, summarised the Washington think tank.
Satellite images show that equipment resources stored in places like Bui in the Kostroma region have significantly decreased. As a result, Russians are forced to use increasingly older equipment and improvised solutions. Ukrainian forces, meanwhile, are trying to utilise captured equipment.
In a recent post on X, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence reported that, according to their records, over 6,000 Russian tanks have been destroyed since the onset of the war.
