Sweden's NATO alliance brings strategic balance to the Baltic Sea, yet Russia remains a substantial force

NATO is now predicted to better control Russia's activities in the Baltic Sea region.

"Looking at the map, the Baltic Sea practically becomes a NATO sea," comments Minna Alander from the Finnish Institute of Foreign Affairs.

Despite this, Alander believes that the Alliance still has much work to do to safeguard itself from Russia.

Sweden's full integration with NATO

Sweden, previously a long-standing neutral country, has collaborated with NATO for several years. Its Alliance membership enables it to fully join into NATO defence operations. Its extensive Baltic coastline and the strategically vital Gotland island are key in this aspect.

Russia retains a significant foothold in the Baltic Sea. This is the Kaliningrad region, situated between Poland and Lithuania. Over the recent years, Moscow has considerably modernized this region in a military context. Currently, missiles that can carry nuclear weapons are stationed here. Kaliningrad is also a base for the Russian Baltic Fleet, conducting numerous large-scale maneuvers there.

Moscow, not long ago, decreased its Baltic fleet in favour of the Black Sea Fleet. However, John Deni from the US Army Institute of War Studies highlights that the Kremlin continues investing in submarines and can perform smaller landings on NATO territory and interfere with Alliance supply routes.

Deni advises that in terms of firepower and range, the Russians unmistakably surpass NATO allies.

"Even taking Sweden into account, NATO's naval forces are somewhat restricted," the researcher asserts. Hence, referring to the Baltic Sea as "NATO’s waters" may be somewhat overstated.

NATO has recently amplified its surveillance of the Baltic Sea region, including through Awacs aircraft and drones. "However, achieving full control over the sea is incredibly challenging," states Julian Pawlak from the Bundeswehr University in Hamburg. The sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines, specifically, has demonstrated that underwater surveillance proves to be extremely intricate.

The Suwalki Corridor between Poland and Lithuania, situated next to the Kaliningrad region, has troubled NATO headquarters for years. In a war scenario, strategists worry that Russia, alongside its ally Belarus, could seize a 40-mile land strip and obstruct the land supply routes to the Baltic states. Nevertheless, Sweden joining NATO reduces this risk, as it improves the sea defence of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.

Source: AFP