Schumer warns of Russian forces at Poland's border without US aid to Ukraine

U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer stated that if Ukraine does not receive aid from the USA by December, the Russian military could be at the borders of Poland. Experts speaking to o2.pl consider this grim scenario unlikely. "In my opinion, such messages serve a specific purpose," believes Prof. Daniel Boćkowski.

Congress has yet to reach an agreement on the aid package for Ukraine, worth about £49 billion. Republicans are opposed to providing funds to Ukraine, emphasizing the need to address another pressing issue—the crisis at the border with Mexico.

President Joe Biden met with representatives from both American parties. The discussions focused on the next temporary budget, leading to an agreement. Unfortunately, the issue of aid for Ukraine remains unresolved.

"We'll deal with it in due time," said Mike Johnson, Speaker of the House of Representatives, this week when asked about the aid package for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Democratic Party senator Chuck Schumer outlines a bleak scenario. He said after the meeting that the atmosphere was so tense it could be cut with a knife.

One of the American representatives told me that if we don't deliver aid, by December Russian tanks could be at the border with Poland. That's how serious the situation is - Schumer was quoted as saying in "Fakty" TVN on Wednesday, February 28.

The role of the United States is crucial as, at this moment, only the USA has such military resources to support the country besieged by Putin's troops.

"Money for Ukraine is needed, because, on the one hand, it is tangible help", and on the other hand, it is a signal to Russia showing that the coalition is united and support will not weaken - assesses Maria Piechowska, analyst at the Polish Institute of International Affairs, for o2.pl.

It is no coincidence that President Emmanuel Macron organized a meeting in Paris to show that not everything depends on the United States. However, remember that it is the USA that sets the pace in this matter - she added.

The already quoted words of Chuck Schumer suggest that without an aid package, Ukraine could fall within the next 10 months. However, according to our interlocutors, such a scenario is unlikely. Prof. Daniel Boćkowski, an expert in security from the University of Białystok, believes that this theory is highly debatable. "Statistics and Murphy's law say that anything can happen," he says in a conversation with o2.pl.

However, the idea that Russia would stand at the borders of Poland in December, I consider unlikely. I think that even if a violent crisis occurred in Ukraine, the Russians would push further south, to cut it off from the sea. They would aim to reach the Dnieper. However, it's uncertain if they could carry out a second Kiev operation - our interlocutor assesses.

Professor Boćkowski also recalls that even during World War II, breaking through enemy lines did not mean penetrating deep into enemy territory quickly. Breaking through to a depth of 400 or 500 kilometres in a short time was unprecedented. If such a situation were to arise, Ukraine would use absolutely all the means at its disposal. Similarly, Maria Piechowska believes the worst-case scenario is unlikely.

Ukraine will not fall, but the lack of aid will certainly make defense difficult. The biggest problem is that deliveries of weapons and ammunition are delayed. Support from the USA is all the more important. Ukrainians are doing everything to get these resources and are constantly asking for more. It is very important to them and will allow them to defend themselves more effectively - she emphasizes.

"Europe, although slowly, is getting more involved in the aid." The truth is, Ukraine needs means to strike in the rear of the Russian Federation, and the Americans are the ones who can assist in this aspect - says the professor.

See also: Will Russian troops enter another country? Reaction of a NATO representative

"However, Ukrainians also produce weapons themselves. They mainly need ordinary ammunition, which the USA could supply, but there is a blockade. Europe also produces, but not on such a scale. However, there is no chance that Ukrainians would declare that the warehouses are empty. The shortage at the front also comes from holding onto ammunition for a rainy day," he adds.

Prof. Boćkowski believes that providing aid to Ukraine is unlikely. Convincing supporters of Trump and those associated with the former president is challenging because, in the expert's opinion, they perceive the war in Ukraine completely differently than we do.

In my opinion, such messages serve a specific purpose. It is an attempt to break the information monopoly and influence the lower house and Donald Trump's supporters to deliver the aid," says Schumer.

"It seems unlikely to me, as the people supporting Trump do not care about the Ukrainian issue. For them, what only matters is that America is great and that funds are spent exclusively on their country," emphasizes Boćkowski.

The professor from the University of Białystok also notes that the Democratic Party wants to show how dire the situation is, to mobilize its electorate before the presidential elections. The war in Ukraine is significant, but not the paramount issue in the USA.

Our source adds that foreign policy has never been the key focus of presidential elections. Domestic issues are definitely more important to the average voter in the States. It should be noted that perhaps the Republicans are not at all concerned with solving the security issue of the southern border. It is fuel for Trump's electoral campaign, which is hard to forsake. Unfortunately, it may come at the expense of Ukraine.