Scholz seeks confidence as Germany braces for early elections

After the ruling coalition's breakdown, Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared his intention to submit his government to a confidence vote. The vote, planned for 15 January 2025, could result in early Bundestag elections being called at the end of March. The opposition parties, CDU/CSU and the FDP, which recently left the coalition, are pressing for the vote and elections to be held earlier.

According to the German Basic Law, if the government does not receive a vote of confidence, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier can dissolve the Bundestag within 21 days and call new elections. The elections must be held within 60 days of the parliament's dissolution, and the president sets the voting date. Steinmeier has already declared his readiness to take these actions.

Organising early elections poses many challenges for Germany. When determining the date, one must consider the school holiday calendar, the carnival period, and the regional elections in Hamburg scheduled for 2 March. The latter is particularly important for the SPD and Scholz, a former mayor of the city. Success in Hamburg could strengthen the Social Democrats' position ahead of the Bundestag elections.

Electoral preparations include appointing election committees and recruiting and training their members. In the previous 2021 elections, around 650,000 volunteers were involved in this process.

Every eligible voter must receive a postal notification, and an increasing number of Germans opt for postal voting, which requires additional resources and complex logistics.

The chairwoman of the Federal Election Commission, Ruth Brand, highlighted potential issues with the paper supply needed for preparing election materials. "Securing paper and fulfilling printing orders is a major challenge," she warned. However, the German paper industry is reassured that there will be no paper shortage, provided orders are placed well in advance.

The collapse of the governing coalition also complicates the legislative situation. Adopting crucial laws, such as the 2025 budget, is now uncertain. Germany will have to operate on a provisional budget without an adopted budget, limiting spending to essential commitments. Scholz may struggle to find support for his initiatives among the opposition.

An additional challenge for the government is the lack of support from the Christian Democrats for key projects. Politicians from the CDU/CSU have already announced they will not support Defence Minister Boris Pistorius's new military service model. This highlights Scholz's difficulties in trying to build a majority for his proposals.

Political parties also need to prepare for early elections. They must establish lists of candidates for deputies, and smaller parties must collect the required signatures.

Some parties have already announced their candidacy for the chancellor: Friedrich Merz from the CDU/CSU and Alice Weidel from the AfD. Christian Lindner from the FDP and Robert Habeck from the Greens have also expressed their willingness to run. In the SPD, a decision has not yet been officially announced, though Olaf Scholz has signalled a readiness to run again.

In his attempt to strengthen the SPD's position, Scholz may blame the liberals from the FDP for the coalition's collapse. However, history has not been kind to SPD chancellors in similar situations. Both Helmut Schmidt and Gerhard Schröder, after losing a vote of confidence, ultimately lost elections, losing the trust of both the parliament and the public. Scholz now faces a similar challenge.

The situation in Germany is dynamic, and the coming months will be crucial for the country's political future. Will the chancellor manage to retain power and lead the SPD to victory? Only time will tell how German voters will assess the government's actions in the face of the crisis.