Russia's PAK DA bomber could challenge global power dynamics

The work on the hard-to-detect strategic bomber PAK DA, conducted by Tupolev, might be more advanced than previously thought. This is an aircraft whose entry into service can—similar to American stealth bombers—affect the global balance of power. What is PAK DA, and what do we know about it?

PAK DA, which stands for Prospective Long-Range Aviation Complex, is a Russian, hard-to-detect strategic bomber designed in a flying wing configuration. The design of the aircraft is undertaken by the Tupolev bureau, which reportedly began work on this machine in 2009.

According to American intelligence sources cited by aviation expert Harrison Kaas, the Russians are close to completing their work. The pace is so rapid that PAK DA may take to the skies faster than the Chinese, similar aircraft H-20.

Only three countries are capable of building a machine with such characteristics. The United States is the most advanced, where the second generation of stealth strategic bombers is already developing. The first of them—the B-2 Spirit—was designed during the Cold War, and the prototype took to the skies in 1989.

The B-2 already has a successor. It is the B-21 Raider, developed by Northrop Grumman, referred to by the manufacturer as a sixth-generation aircraft. The prototype of this machine, shown publicly at the end of 2022, was flown the following year.

It is worth considering the work conducted by China and Russia in this context—these countries are just now trying to build machines that the Americans have had for 30 years and for which they have already developed a successor.

The same is true for fifth-generation combat aircraft—both China and Russia built their designs a quarter of a century after the Americans. The latter is already starting to retire the oldest specimens of its first fifth-generation aircraft, the F-22 Raptor.

This highlights the United States's advantage in aviation technology. Why are new-generation strategic bombers so important?

The entry into service of the American B-2 was a breakthrough that impacted the global balance of power. It was the first machine in the world to be both a strategic bomber and a stealth aircraft.

This gave the Pentagon an unprecedented ability to project power: an aircraft taking off from the United States could—with the support of flying tankers—reach any corner of the planet and attack any target, including with nuclear weapons.

China and Russia are also working on such capabilities, though information about their developing machines remains sparse. It is known that they will have a flying wing form and will fly at subsonic speeds. It is difficult in this case to look for inspiration or copying from the Americans—physics is the same for everyone, so machines with similar characteristics have a similar appearance.

According to limited official information, work on the Russian aircraft PAK DA began in 2009. The aircraft is to have a four-person crew, be able to conduct 30-hour flights and carry up to 33 tonnes of armament in internal compartments (for comparison, the B-2 and B-21 can carry a little over 24 tonnes).

It will be powered by four Kuznetsov NK-32 engines, an upgraded version of the engines that power the Tu-160 aircraft. The new bomber is to carry a wide range of armaments, including various types of cruise missiles and hypersonic missiles.

The plans related to the flight profile are pretty unusual for this class of aircraft. According to the Russians, PAK DA is capable of high-altitude flights around 20,000 metres and low-level missions navigating the terrain, which is more typical of tactical strike aircraft.

Information about the imminent completion of work on the Russian machine's prototype, however, can be surprising. Although one of the Russian goals was to obtain capabilities similar to those of the USA, the Chinese bomber H-20 was generally considered more advanced and closer to its first flight.

Harrison Kaas points out that Russian capabilities are constrained by the war in Ukraine, which is consuming industrial capacity and available resources. Under such conditions, the Russians can only produce a handful of combat aircraft yearly.

Although the TASS agency eagerly reports information about additional batches of aircraft delivered to the Russian Air Force, Kremlin propaganda does not highlight that these are two to three aircraft batches that do not cover the losses incurred.

Therefore, Russian announcements that several prototypes are being built simultaneously and that serial production of PAK DA is expected to begin in 2027 or 2028 should be treated with great scepticism, seen more as propaganda than a real implementation schedule.

Even if information about the prototype is confirmed, the time from its construction, conducting necessary tests, or modifying the design to the start of production will likely be much longer.