Russia's nuclear arsenal: A powerful reminder of its dominance

Putin has been using the nuclear threat since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. On 27 February 2022, just three days after the invasion began, he announced increased combat readiness of Russia's nuclear forces. This was the first serious warning signal meant to pressure countries supporting Kyiv.

The use of "all the means at our disposal" (including nuclear weapons) was mentioned in his speech on 21 September 2022. This would occur if the "territorial integrity of our country [was] threatened."

In May 2023, when Ben Wallace, the then-British Defence Minister, announced the delivery of Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine, Putin stated that "Russia is ready for a nuclear war." He ordered exercises for the readiness of strategic nuclear forces.

The latest increase in nuclear threats occurred in November 2024, when the United States allowed Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles to attack targets deep within Russia.

On 19 November, a few days after this decision, Russia announced an updated nuclear doctrine, expanding the criteria for using nuclear weapons. In this new version, the use of nuclear weapons is possible in response to attacks by non-nuclear states (such as Ukraine currently) supported by nuclear powers. The use of nuclear weapons is also possible in response to significant conventional weapon attacks, such as those involving drones or hypersonic weapons. The possibility of responding to threats against the territorial integrity of Russia or its allies, including Belarus, is particularly emphasized.

On 21 November, at the Dnipro, at least one experimental medium-range ballistic missile Oreshnik was launched. According to Americans, it is based on the intercontinental RS-26 Rubezh solutions. Although the missile was equipped with a conventional warhead, its launch was meant to show that Russia is not joking. Escalation in the verbal sphere is clearly advancing.

Russia's nuclear deterrence system, called the triad, consists of three elements: land-based — composed of stationary and mobile launchers of intercontinental ballistic missiles, sea-based — its key element is submarines, and air-based — relying on heavy strategic bombers.

The first element, the Russian Strategic Missile Forces, was formally established in 1997 by merging the Aerospace Forces and the Missile and Space Defence Forces. The Strategic Missile Forces consist of three armies, which include eleven divisions equipped with six types of intercontinental ballistic missiles.

The most commonly used are the RT-2 Topol missiles in three versions, originating from the 1980s. It was the world's first intercontinental ballistic missile that could be transported on a wheeled chassis. A 7-axle version of the MAZ-7310 and MAZ-7917 trucks was specially developed for them. The missile can carry a 550 kiloton thermonuclear warhead over a distance of more than 10,000 kilometres. Among six divisions of the Strategic Missile Forces, there are about 150 launchers, and as many warheads.

The next most numerous ballistic missiles are the UR-100NUTTH, which are in service in four divisions (two of which also have RT-2 Topols). These missiles are launched from stationary launchers. In total, there are a little over 300 launchers in eleven divisions, with more than 1,100 warheads. Each missile can carry six thermonuclear warheads.

Under the START II treaty (an agreement signed between the USA and Russia in 1993 aimed at reducing the number of nuclear warheads of both countries), the Russian Federation committed to withdrawing missiles with MIRV warheads, which carry multiple warheads, although these still remain in service.

In addition to the strategic component, Russians have tactical missiles that can carry nuclear warheads: the OTR-21 Tochka, OTR-23 Oka, and 9K720 Iskander. This is a legacy of the Cold War. According to the doctrine at the time, short-range carriers were intended to "cut through" a path for armoured units. The power of tactical warheads ranges from 10 kilotons to 1 megaton. In total, it is estimated that Russia has about 4,000 tactical warheads capable of carrying a nuclear payload.

The maritime component of the nuclear triad consists of a dozen submarines that have a total of 176 launchers. Depending on the type, they can carry R-29 and R-30 Bulava ballistic missiles. In total, Russians have 720 of them.

The main element is six submarines of project 667BDRM, which can carry 16 R-29RMU2 Sineva missiles each. Each of them can carry MIRV warheads with four 500 kiloton charges each or ten 100 kiloton charges each over a distance of about 8,500 kilometres. In the last three years, Russians have launched one test missile each autumn on a range in the Barents Sea.

Five more submarines of project 955, Borei type, which began entering service in 2013, can also carry 16 ballistic missiles. In this case, these are R-30 Bulava, which are a development of the land-based RS-12M1 Topol-M. They can carry a warhead with six nuclear charges over a distance of about 10,000 kilometres.

In addition, Russians have integrated Kalibr-PL cruise missiles with 533 mm calibre torpedo launchers, which can carry tactical nuclear payloads. This means that not only strategic submarines can carry nuclear weapons, but also small diesel-electric-powered vessels capable of operating freely, for example, in the Baltic Sea.

The third element of the triad is long-range strategic aviation. The main weapon is the Tu-95MS bombers, which are an old design from the late 1940s. Joseph Stalin was a witness to the maiden flight of these aircraft, and the bomber entered the line three years after the tyrant's death. Series production ended after 41 years in 1994.

Currently, 59 aircraft from the 1980s are in use. The Tu-95MS can carry six Kh-55 missiles with a 200 kiloton warhead in the bomb bay on a drum launcher, and in the Tu-95MS16 version, an additional ten on four underwing mounts. One regiment is equipped with Tu-160. These bombers, considered by Russian propaganda to be the best in the world, can carry a dozen Kh-55 missiles on two drum launchers.

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Russians have used the Kh-555 version, which carries an explosive payload. However, on several occasions, Russians launched Kh-55 missiles that carried a mass-dimensional equivalent instead of a warhead.

There are 1,588 warheads in constant readiness, deployed in the silos of land bases, onboard strategic aircraft, and submarines. It is estimated that the Air Force possesses about 730 tactical ballistic missile warheads and aircraft bombs. Additionally, rocket artillery has about 430 tactical warheads in various systems — from S-300 anti-aircraft to Iskander ballistic systems. The Navy possesses about 700 pieces of various types of warheads on ships. Most systems capable of carrying warheads are deployed in the Kaliningrad, Leningrad, and Murmansk regions.

The Kremlin, therefore, has at its disposal a vast nuclear arsenal, which it has been threatening to use for two years. For now, Putin remembers that in such a war, there will be no winners.