Russia's Nagorno-Karabakh troops head to Ukraine: A strategic retreat?
Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesman, confirmed that on April 17, 2024, the so-called Russian peacekeeping forces began withdrawing from Nagorno-Karabakh. They might be transferred to Ukraine. We detail the size and equipment of the contingent deployed in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Many photos and videos confirming the Russians' movements have appeared on social media. Meanwhile, Politico published an article suggesting that Moscow had planned to keep its forces in Nagorno-Karabakh until 2025, but recent events have led to a revision of these plans.
Russians withdraw troops from Nagorno-Karabakh
This primarily concerns the offensive Azerbaijan conducted in 2023. Due to the Russians' inactivity, Azerbaijan quickly took control of the disputed enclave, leading to its authorities announcing the end of its quasi-state status from January 1, 2024. The Russian contingent ceased to play any role, potentially being redeployed elsewhere, possibly to Ukraine, according to Politico.
Such a move could be seen to some extent as a sign of Russian weakness. The contingent deployed in Nagorno-Karabakh was estimated to be relatively small and not well-equipped.
About 2,000 soldiers, in addition to small arms, purportedly had 90 armoured personnel carriers and 380 units of vehicles and special equipment at their disposal. Russian propaganda might have noted these figures but cannot conceal what has been seen in the videos and photos shared online, mainly convoys with military vehicles and armored personnel carriers from the BTR family.
This refers specifically to models from the BTR-80 family, which began production in 1984. The most recent vehicle seen in the videos is the BTR-82, which started entering service in the Russian army in 2011.
The BTR-82 uses an 8-wheeled chassis and Kamaz 740.14-300 engines with 300 HP. They can reach speeds of up to 100 km/h, and the interior can accommodate a crew of up to 10 people. Russian designers armed these armoured carriers with a rapid-fire automatic cannon 2A72 of 30 mm calibre and a machine gun of 7.62 mm calibre.
Contrary to some speculation, the contingent deployed in Nagorno-Karabakh likely also had a few post-Soviet infantry fighting vehicles (BMP-1 or BMP-2) but did not have tanks.
Another sign of Russian weakness?
Given the previous actions of the Russian authorities, redirecting the contingent from Nagorno-Karabakh to Ukraine would not be surprising.
There have already been reports of moving soldiers and equipment to the front from various parts of Russia, even the Far East. The decision to send S-300V4 anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems from the Kuril Islands to Ukraine has made headlines. Older tanks, some even 60 years old, are also increasingly seen on the front.
