Russia's cyber warfare strategy: A clear and present danger to Europe

Christopher Porter, who is now the Head of International Cooperation in the Security Area at Google Cloud, argued that the Russian military has met its objectives in Ukraine in regions where Western support for Kyiv is weakest.

"The Kremlin certainly wants to avoid escalating conflict with NATO. Hence, it opts for informational operations and espionage to achieve success in Ukraine without triggering a broader conventional conflict with NATO," he explained.

The expert highlighted that Russia's invasion of Ukraine began with cyber-attacks on the financial sector days before the military incursion. "The war in Ukraine did not start with armored units entering Ukraine. It commenced with cyber attacks on the financial sector a few days before the actual invasion," he pointed out.

In discussing the lessons the West should learn, Porter emphasized that technical cyber resilience is just a part of the equation. "Most importantly, the resilience demonstrated by the Ukrainian people stood out. They weren't significantly harmed by the attacks, started to resist, and didn’t surrender their country to the aggressor," he said.

Porter noted that since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, Russia has been particularly cautious regarding NATO member states.

"For instance, in disrupting satellite communications, they avoid directly targeting satellites belonging to Alliance nations. Naturally, they wish to be prepared for a potential conflict by engaging in espionage to understand NATO's military dispositions," he said.

The former advisor to US presidents emphasized the reality of the cyber threat. "Russia, as a leader in cyber expertise, can certainly target crucial European infrastructure without physical force, using cyber capabilities," he cautioned.

Porter pointed out that Russian cyber operations against Western critical infrastructure are only part of the issue. He explains that the Russians also aim at Western societies by disseminating misinformation and pro-Russian propaganda online.

"One might wonder why it is beneficial to launch attacks against civilians during peacetime and why a nation would deploy its military capabilities in such a manner. There are two main reasons. Firstly, such actions don't escalate to physical conflict because they occur in cyberspace. Secondly, cyber attacks serve as a warning and aim to demoralize the population," he said.

Porter mentioned that Poland finds itself in a particularly challenging situation, facing intensified cyber attacks from both Russia and Belarus. "To spread misinformation, both countries can muster their entire national arsenal: technology, intelligence operatives, and cultural expertise. Thus, their focus isn't solely on military or government targets but also on citizens and, for instance, small businesses," he elaborated.

Porter also emphasized that hackers backed by the Russian government stepped up their cyber activities in 2021, ahead of the invasion. "In 2022, the attacks on users in Ukraine surged by 250 percent compared to 2020. Concurrently, assaults targeting users in NATO countries soared by more than 300 percent," he observed.

"The continuity of the Ukrainian government would be a major concern without Western support. It's challenging to predict the outcome, but Russia could likely outpace Ukraine in cyber capabilities," he added.