Russian troop buildup in Kursk triggers Ukrainian response

The American Institute for the Study of War raises the alarm: Russians are concentrating troops in the Kursk region, near the border with the Ukrainian Sumy region. Among others, units of the so-called Kadyrovtsy are being brought in. The Ukrainians estimate the number of Russian troops in the Kursk region at about 9,000-10,000 soldiers.

ISW emphasizes that these are probably forces with low combat capabilities—they are not fully staffed and poorly organized. Nevertheless, in the think tank's assessment, even such a grouping of invading forces will serve its purpose because it will force the Ukrainians to stretch their forces along the front line to secure the state's northern border.

In the first half of May, ISW similarly assessed the goal of Russian operations in the Kharkiv region. Analysts at the time emphasized that Russian offensive actions in the north of the Kharkiv region probably distracted Ukrainian forces from critical sections of the front in eastern Ukraine and, therefore, should not be seen as preparations for an attack on Kharkiv.

In recent weeks, most Ukrainian and Western analysts have emphasized that the invading forces lack the technological and human potential to encircle and capture such a large city.

Reports of a possible assault on Kharkiv appeared in the media back in March in connection with the expansion of the Russian military grouping in the regions bordering Ukraine - Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk.

At the beginning of May, the number of these forces was estimated at 50,000 soldiers.