Russian tactical push in Kharkiv: A diversified strategy or prelude to larger assault?
The strategic aim of the currently restricted Russian offensive operations in the north of the Kharkiv region is to distract Ukrainian forces from other parts of the front, as evaluated in the latest report by the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
An in-depth ISW analysis focused on the offensive operations north of the Kharkiv region that the Russian military initiated on Friday. According to experts, these manoeuvres are of a limited scope at present and do not suggest a major operation, aimed at encircling and capturing the city.
As per ISW, Russian forces likely seek to push Ukrainians back from the Belgorod region border at this phase, thereby moving their units closer to Kharkiv, within artillery's reach.
"On Friday morning, Russian troops embarked on offensive operations along the Russian-Ukrainian border north of the Kharkiv region, achieving noticeable tactical advancements. It seems this is the first phase of the offensive with restricted operational objectives. Yet, strategically, it strives to redirect Ukrainian forces away from other critical areas of the eastern Ukrainian front," ISW reported.
Russians persist with the offensive
The Russians conducted two confined operations near Lyptsi and one near Volchansk. The Ukrainian side reported that the attacks employed assault infantry groups backed by armored vehicles. Concurrently, the Russians significantly ramped up aerial bombings, artillery, and rocket launches.
According to most accounts from both Ukrainian and Russian sources, the Russians have taken control of the border villages of Strilecha, Krasne, and Pylna, and possibly Borysivka. The Russians also advanced towards Volchansk, but the exact progress remains unclear.
ISW anticipates that the invading forces will aim to widen their tactical achievements with further offensives, to drive Ukrainians back and position themselves closer to Kharkiv, within artillery's range.
Tens of thousands of troops gathered
The think tank, referencing available footage, noted that the Russians deployed relatively modest forces and limited equipment for the attacks in the north. Prior data indicates that in this area, the invaders assembled forces numbering between 35,000-50,000 troops.
According to ISW, the current limited manoeuvres by the Russian forces do not imply a large-scale offensive on Kharkiv aimed at encircling and seizing the city. Despite this, the analysts consider that these actions might be a precursor to a later comprehensive offensive. However, they deem it "difficult" for the Russians to capture Kharkiv should that be their intent.
ISW suggests the motivation behind the Russian activity in this direction is "a relatively short window of opportunity" before the delivery of Western support to Ukraine, which the Kremlin is eager to exploit.
