Russian Su‑34 production falters as losses mount in Ukraine war

The Russian Armed Forces received the second batch of Su-34 aircraft built in 2024 this June. This means that in recent months, the Russians have produced only four aircraft of this type. This number is much lower compared to deliveries made in the Russian Federation over the past decade.

Let's recall that since the beginning of 2024, the Russian defence industry has managed to produce at least four Su-34 aircraft intended, among other things, for carrying bombs from the FAB family. At the same time, production at the current level, which is currently estimated at a maximum of 8 aircraft per year, cannot cover the Russian army's current losses.

At the end of May this year, Ukrainian military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko calculated that the Russians had lost 25 Su-34 aircraft since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. However, this is the state as of December 2023, so the current number of lost bombers of this type is certainly higher—if only because another Su-34 recently crashed in the Russian Federation. It is assumed that the Russians have lost about 50 Su-34 aircraft since the start of the war.

Although the Russian Federation continues to lose more machines, it has not ceased their production. The problem for the Russians, however, is that the production rate of Su-34 aircraft is gradually declining. Exact data has been examined by Ukrainian military analyst Taras Chmut. The expert calculates that the Russian defence industry previously produced 7 experimental prototypes of the Su-34 and 5 pre-production units.

From 2010 to 2020, full-scale production was carried out, and 126 Su-34 bombers left the factories. This means that the average annual output during this period was about 12 aircraft.

Changes in production rates can be observed since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine. Chmut emphasizes that he does not draw any conclusions in his calculations – he only provides figures. The expert's analysis shows that the Russians produced as many as 20 Su-34 aircraft in 2022. In 2023, the number fell to 12, and in the ongoing 2024, it is currently 4 aircraft, which at an unchanged production rate means that by the end of the year, the Russian Armed Forces will receive another 4 machines.

In essence, the production of 36 aircraft over the last 3 years means that the Russian Federation is producing machines at an unchanged (or even slightly increased) rate from the 2010-2020 period. The decline in efficiency is evident when comparing factory status year-by-year – since 2022, the Russian defence industry has been producing fewer Su-34 aircraft each year, which could be a problem resulting from increasingly severe sanctions imposed by the West. Guerrilla movement Atesh agents have been reporting issues due to this in recent weeks.

Let's recall that the mentioned Su-34s are truly universal machines remaining in the arsenal of the Russian Federation. These multifunctional tactical bombers can conduct a variety of missions and are designed to carry weapons with a total weight of 8,000 kg on 12 hardpoints. On pylons suspended under the fuselage, nuclear ammunition, among other things, can be found. Currently, however, the Su-34s are usually used to attack Ukrainian positions with bombs from the FAB family.

The maximum speed developed by this design is about 1,900 km/h. This is provided by the presence of two AL-31F M1 turbojet engines. The maximum range of the Su-34 is estimated at about 4,000 km.