Russian push: Ukrainian defense strained as Donbas battle shifts

Internal destabilisation of Russia, inflicting maximum losses on its troops, and ultimately forcing the enemy to withdraw some forces from Donbas - with these intentions, in August 2024, Ukraine entered the Kursk region.

Initially, the last two assumptions were fulfilled. At the start of September, General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that thanks to the Kursk operation, the situation in Donbas had stabilised. However, the official optimism of the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian army has since faded - September and October have set records for territorial losses for the Ukrainians.

In October alone, they lost over 518 square kilometres of territory in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Thus, Syrskyi no longer disregards the reality.

The situation remains difficult and tends to worsen, said Syrskyi in a conversation with General Christopher Cavoli, Commander of Allied Joint Forces in Europe. The enemy, utilising their numerical superiority, continues offensive actions and focuses their main efforts on the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions.

Although the overall frequency of Russian attacks in Donbas has dropped by nearly half in the last week, the Russians still press on and advance, despite facing significant difficulties with regular supplies of ammunition and vehicles.

Their latest actions illustrate the specifics of the ongoing battles. Even though the entire front is about 1,450 kilometres long, the Russians are conducting active operations over a total width of only 48 kilometres, with individual strikes as narrow as 90-140 metres. However, it is not the width of the strike but the location that is crucial. This method of attack can be compared to the operation of a hydraulic press - by pressing hard in one spot, the Russians expect the Ukrainian defensive lines to eventually break, allowing subsequent units to enter the breach.

In this manner, the Russians try to create corridors on the flanks of Ukrainian units, attempting to outflank them. To avoid encirclement, the Ukrainians must realign the defence line and retreat by several hundred metres.

For the moment, the Russians again lack the strength to strike at a pace similar to the last two months. Therefore, near Kupiansk, they advanced only about 90 metres over the course of a week, on a front 460 metres wide. Simultaneously, near Kreminna, they gained 140 metres of territory, despite their claims of advancing more than twice as far.

Temporarily, the focus of the fighting has shifted from the Pokrovsk section to the Kurakhove section, where battles are ongoing around the Kurakhove Reservoir, which exploded on 11 November. By destroying the dam on the Volcha River, the Russians hoped to flood Ukrainian positions. They did not achieve their goal and instead hindered their own advance - the water spread over the polders, preventing the use of heavy equipment.

After failing on the southern bank, the Russians had to redirect the focus of their attacks to the north, where they resumed assaults on Illinka, Berestky, and Novoselydivka with the forces of the 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade.

They managed to enter Illinka but further encountered difficulties. In this area, the Ukrainians based their defense on oxbow lakes, ravines, and a road on an embankment connecting Berestky with Voznesenka and further with Tsukuryne. From the direction of the latter locality, they are attempting to attack along the road to trap the Ukrainians in a pocket on the northern bank of the reservoir.

This Russian effort, which incurred heavy human losses, seems pointless. However, capturing Kurakhove would enable the invaders to create another "bag" between Novoukrayinka, Vuhledar, and Uspenivka, forcing the Ukrainians to retreat and straighten the front line once again.

According to Ukrainian intelligence, the Russians are currently transferring another 60,000-70,000 troops to Pokrovsk. Serhiy Dobriak, head of the military administration in Pokrovsk, claims that in his area of responsibility, the Russians maintain an advantage of ten to one.

After regrouping - probably in about 10-12 days - the Russians will resume attacks on the southern section of the front in Donbas. County Pokrovsk is one of the most important targets of the Russian operation - it is a major communication hub where railway lines intersect.

Capturing Pokrovsk would secure the southern flank of the attack on Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, for which the Russian army is preparing. Near Toretsk, troops of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division have already been identified, having returned to the front after reorganising in the rear.

The Russians last assaulted the northern section of the front in Donbas nearly a month ago and are currently stalled in Toretsk, where fierce urban fighting continues. Putin's forces currently occupy about 20 percent of the city's territory.

The Russians still lack the strength for constant pressure along the entire front. Putin's forces are unable to attack in five to seven directions, as they did last year. Their strength suffices to conduct offensives in two main directions - Pokrovsk and Kurakhove. In other sections, there is relative calm, with attack scale limited to several to a dozen daily.

After exhausting forces in one direction - in this case, Kurakhove - they launch an attack in another, near Toretsk, using the pause to bring up reserves to the first direction. By operating in this specific "overlapping" manner, they can continuously engage Ukrainian forces.

This way, they can also gradually move towards the borders of the Donetsk region. Capturing the entire Donbas to its pre-war administrative boundaries is a goal Putin has repeatedly set for his generals.

However, there is still a long way to go. Since 2014, when the fighting in Donbas began, Russia has managed to occupy just over 60 percent of its territory. To complete the task set by Putin, they need to capture an additional 10,360 square kilometres. That's a significant amount. If they maintain the record pace from October, they will capture all of Donbas in roughly two years. Unless the Americans, after Donald Trump takes power, limit or stop their aid.

In that scenario, the Russians will hold almost all the aces. Even with far less well-trained soldiers, limited artillery ammunition stocks, and massive shortages in heavy equipment, they can prevail over the Ukrainians through sheer numbers. This is what they are currently doing. With limited domestic production and minimal ally support, the Ukrainians will run out of ammunition sooner than the Russians will run out of people.