Russian Navy in disarray: Continuous delays and strategic missteps

On Telegram, on a channel belonging to the Russian military expert Władysław Szurygin, a post drew attention to the difficult situation of the Russian Navy. Szurygin emphasized that the Russians had almost stopped all shipbuilding programs, from aircraft carriers to frigates and corvettes. He also recalled that the only Russian aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, has been undergoing modernization since 2017, which will likely only be completed in the second half of 2024.

"One of the main subjective reasons is the jump that has prevailed over these years in the minds of our admirals, who have always wanted to get newer and more advanced ships, which led to the continuous modernization of existing projects and, as a result, to new delays," explained the expert. He added that the sanctions from 2014 and the breaking of trade contacts with Ukraine had a catastrophic impact on the shipbuilding and repair programs.

Ukraine had a monopoly on the supply of turbines and other essential ship components. "The almost immediate severance of economic ties with Ukraine in 2014 led to the ‘freezing’ of most shipbuilding programs. It was only towards the end of 2018 that, with enormous efforts to restore lost technologies and production, it was possible to 'unfreeze' them," Szurygin noted. In his opinion, as a result, the Russian fleet "turned into a gypsy camp, where sister ships (identical ships) could always be counted on the fingers of one hand".

Szurygin also referred to contemporary times. According to him, Russian naval commanders neither knew nor understood the rapidly changing nature of warfare and the role of the fleet in it. "As a result, the Black Sea Fleet first lost the initiative, then withdrew to the coasts of Crimea, and by the summer of 2023 was forced to switch entirely to the defensive, closing itself in its bases, from which ships only sporadically sailed out to launch cruise missiles".

The Russian expert believes that the Black Sea Fleet was left alone with its problems, "which ultimately led to the fact that today the Ukrainian Navy, relying on the reconnaissance capabilities of NATO allies, takes the initiative at sea and hunts fleet ships using their aerial and maritime drones".

The difficult situation was evidently noticed, as the Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet command in Crimea on 17 March, as reported by the British defense ministry on Tuesday. According to the British, the visit was motivated by the continuous successes of the Ukrainians in conducting asymmetric maritime strikes on Russian Black Sea Fleet ships.

The Ukrainians regularly use swarms of kamikaze maritime drones to attack Black Sea Fleet ships, as we have written about many times. One of the latest targets, which was sent to the bottom, was the missile boat Ivanovets of project 12411, type Molnia (NATO code: Tarantul). Kamikaze type drones reportedly hit the unit several times, leading to its sinking near the Russian base at Lake Donuzlav on the occupied Crimea.

It is not entirely clear which devices the Ukrainians used at that time. Most likely, it was one of the domestically produced unmanned vehicles - Magura V5, Sea Baby, or Mariczka. Especially the first one is noted for its high efficiency. The Ukrainian intelligence agency reported in early March that with its help, the stern, right, and left sides of the patrol ship project 22160 Sergei Kotov, worth about £52 million, were damaged. It was already the 15th aggressor ship sunk during the war with Ukraine.

Magura V5 (eng. Maritime Autonomous Guard Unmanned Robotic Apparatus), often called the Ukrainian superweapon, is a multi-purpose unmanned surface vessel of the new generation, developed in Ukraine. The device can perform various operations such as surveillance, reconnaissance, patrolling, search and rescue, mine warfare, protection of the navy, or combat missions. Its design, including the hydrodynamic V5 hull, is intended to increase maneuverability and make it harder to detect.

The device is 5.5 metres in length, 1.5 metres in width, and capable of moving at a maximum speed of 48.3 mph. The range of the unmanned Magura V5 is estimated at approximately 469 miles, and its payload is about 320 kilograms. Communication of the unmanned vehicle is based on Wi-Fi Mesh network (wireless mesh network) with an antenna amplifier or satellite communication. It is a solution that can be easily launched from any remote location, minimizing the need for human resources to carry out missions.