Russian missile upgrade poses new double-threat to Ukraine

The Ukrainian service Defense Express published photos of the wreckage of the AS-23a (Kh-101) cruise missile. Preliminary analysis confirms that the Russians modified this weapon to make it even more lethal. We explain the mechanism they applied.

The found wreckage comes from one of these types of missiles that the Russians used in a massive attack carried out on May 7, 2024. An element that particularly attracted attention here was as many as two warheads - the standard for the AS-23a cruise missile weighing 450 kilograms and another weighing about 350 kilograms.

Studies conducted by Ukrainians confirm information published a few days earlier by British intelligence. The Russians decided to modify the AS-23a cruise missiles to make them even more dangerous. The additional warhead is supposed to cause a much larger shrapnel spray upon hitting the target.

Applying such a solution reduces the range of the discussed weapon (the second warhead is mounted at the expense of a smaller fuel tank). However, its standard range is still as much as about 4,500 kilometres, so even if its range were to be halved, it would not deprive the Russians of the ability to attack any selected targets in Ukraine.

The pages of Defense Express also mentioned the markings found on the wreckage of this AS-23a missile. Its serial number indicated that it was produced in the second quarter of 2024. This means it was removed from the production line and quickly designated for use against Ukraine. This raises concerns that the Russians are carrying out these modifications on a larger scale.

There are some doubts about how the additional warhead affects, for example, the guidance systems and the mechanisms responsible for detonation. However, the increased lethality may, in the eyes of the Russians, compensate for the poorer accuracy of the AS-23a missile. Its overall dimensions have most likely remained unchanged. We remind you that each type of missile measures almost 7.5 meters in length and, after being launched, reaches a speed of almost 999 km/h.

For their part, we remind you that to carry AS-23a cruise missiles, the Russians use their strategic bombers. This primarily refers to Tu-95, which is most often seen over Ukraine. These aircraft can operate at an altitude of up to about 13,500 metres and stay in the air without refuelling for up to 14 hours. Their range is estimated at about 10,500 kilometres.