Russia ramps up cruise missile attacks on Ukrainian airbases

According to intelligence reports, since the beginning of June, the Russian Air Force, through its tactical aviation, has been continuing to put pressure on the front line in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, kamikaze drones have been used to attack deeply located infrastructure and military targets.

However, from 12 June to 18 June, the Russian long-range aviation focused its actions on cruise missile attacks on Ukrainian airbases.

This change in tactics is likely the result of frustration caused by the successes of Ukrainian air attacks. It may also indicate growing concerns in Russia over the potential use of F-16 aircraft by Ukraine.

It was noted that a coordinated series of Ukrainian attacks on targets in Crimea led to the destruction of key elements of the Russian SA-20 (S-300) and SA-21 (S-400) surface-to-air missile systems.

These successes show that Russia has problems protecting its assets in Crimea despite expressing pride in its own air defence and significant financial resources allocated for this purpose.

Although Russia can likely replace the destroyed systems quickly, their constant loss will probably force it to shift equipment from other areas if it wants to maintain the current level of air defence - as has happened in the past. Alternatively, Russia may be forced to accept limitations in its capabilities, which increases the risk for its troops in Crimea.

Additionally, further successful Ukrainian attacks on Russian airbases, such as those in Mozdok, Akhtubinsk, and recently in Morozovsk, have most likely forced Russia to continue relocating aircraft to bases further from the front line. This is likely to result in increased wear and tear on aircraft and crew fatigue, due to longer flight times.

The assessment of the situation indicates that this could have been the cause of the accidental loss of a Su-34 fighter-bomber (NATO code: Fullback) over North Ossetia on 12 June.