Russia mitigates combat losses with mechanized might in Ukraine

Russia, it seems, has managed to control the losses in personnel so far, and during recent attacks in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine, used more mechanized equipment - according to the latest report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

ISW analysts note that although the intensification of recent Russian offensive operations in Ukraine "will most likely result in increased losses in personnel and equipment," the Russian Ministry of Defence "seems to be able to mitigate these losses."

The think tank reports that in the last week, the Russians conducted several mechanized attacks in the Donetsk region, including near towns such as Chasiv Yar, Terny, Berdychi, Semenivka, and Tonenke. Analysts estimate that "the earlier model of Russian attacks, conducted mainly by infantry, did not engage armoured vehicles on such a large scale, leading to increased personnel losses. Russia seems to have effectively used the ongoing cryptomobilisation to compensate for the growing personnel losses".

ISW recalls that according to estimates by the Ukrainian military intelligence GUR, Russia is recruiting about 30,000 people per month to its army. "The recently observed trend of engaging the Russian forces in tactical attacks with a larger number of vehicles (...) indicates that the losses of armoured vehicles and tanks no longer restrict or worry the Russian army", - adds ISW.

The Institute also recalls estimates by the British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), which in February this year reported that Russia still has in its warehouses enough lower-quality armored vehicles to replenish losses for about three years.

ISW believes that the Kremlin will most likely not decide on an unpopular mobilisation to the army as long as losses in personnel or equipment do not reach a point above which it will not be possible to make up for them thanks to cryptomobilisation and current production capacities of the defence industry.

"The increase in recent mechanised attacks in eastern Ukraine indicates the Russian command's belief that Russia is able to compensate for the losses in these attacks while preparing for the anticipated offensive in summer 2024", - we read.

It also stipulates that it does not have visual confirmation of the reports from recent days, according to which Ukrainian drones destroyed aeroplanes at four airbases in Russia (near Kursk, in Morozovsk in the Rostov region, Yeysk in the Krasnodar Territory, and Engels in the Saratov region).

Ukrainian media, citing sources in the GUR and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), reported that Ukrainian drones, among others, destroyed six unspecified machines in Morozovsk and damaged three strategic bombers Tu-95 (in Engels) and two Su-25 aircraft (in Yeysk).

ISW recalls that Russia typically uses Tu-95 bombers stationed in Engels to bomb targets in Ukraine using Kh-101 and Kh-555 missiles. In 2023, Russia had about 60 Tu-95 aircraft, so it would be - according to ISW - "noteworthy", if the destruction of three machines - and thus, five percent of their entire fleet were confirmed.

Source: PAP