Russia deploys submarine decoy in Novorossiysk to mislead Ukraine

The British intelligence reports that the Russians are once again employing tactics that have been used since the start of the conflict in Ukraine. Satellite images have revealed that a painted mock-up of a submarine has been positioned on concrete in the port of Novorossiysk.

As highlighted by the Military portal, citing the British report, these actions are “a dubious attempt to mislead Ukrainian drone pilots.” This strategy has long been a part of the Russian military approach, tracing its origins in the ongoing Ukraine conflict back to the operations of the Russian air forces.

It was the painted mock-ups of aeroplanes on airfield aprons that initiated what we are now witnessing in Novorossiysk. Recently, in the city of Primorsko-Akhtarsk (in Krasnodar Krai), the aggressor created decoys resembling Su-34 aircraft. Similar tactics by the Russians at the Engels air base, where recently a Ukrainian drone attack took place, involving imagery of Tu-95 bombers, have also been reported.

This time, the Russians are expanding their tactics by painting in one of the ports a shape that resembles an unspecified model of a submarine, situated next to a Project 887 ship of about 230 feet in length (approximately 70 meters). Why this decision? A significant consideration may be that, according to the latest estimates, the Kremlin has already lost about 30% of its Black Sea Fleet.

This indicates that the Russian Federation has an increasingly limited number of ships that it can utilise in the Black Sea, necessitating steps aimed at confusing the Ukrainians potentially planning more attacks, making use of, among other things, aircraft. It's also important to note that painting mock-ups of vehicles may not only serve to protect the remaining operational machinery but also to deceive the enemy in situations where weapons are lost in combat. In such cases, the mock-up can act as "evidence" that the military has not lost its capabilities – these are the hidden losses.

It's worth noting that using mock-ups is a tactic particularly effective when observation is conducted with devices offering low image quality. For observers relying solely on the view from a "regular" camera, the shape and colour of the ship visible in the port can indeed mislead the enemy.

In practice, however, reconnaissance of the area prior to engagement often involves the use of thermal imaging tools. In these instances, the painted mock-up proves ineffective, as it lacks the characteristic heat signatures of actual vehicles, which help to distinguish genuine equipment from fakes.