Russia and North Korea forge ahead: Looming offensive in Kursk
The Russian army has amassed a force of 50,000 soldiers, including units from North Korea, preparing to launch an offensive aimed at reclaiming territory occupied by Ukraine in the Kursk region of Russia, according to American and Ukrainian officials.
As reported by "The New York Times," the new US assessment shows that Russia has gathered these forces without withdrawing soldiers from eastern Ukraine—the main priority on the battlefield—which enables Moscow to conduct operations on several fronts simultaneously.
Russian troops have been clawing back some of the territory that Ukraine captured in Kursk this year. They have been attacking Ukrainian positions with missile strikes and artillery fire, but they have not yet begun a major assault there, American officials reported.
The attack will occur in "the coming days"
Ukrainian officials expect an attack involving North Korean troops to happen in the coming days. For now, the North Koreans are training with Russian forces in the western part of Kursk.
The joint offensive by Russia and North Korea coincides with the time when President-elect Donald J. Trump is preparing to take office with a declared goal of ending the war quickly. Trump has said little about his plans for resolving the conflict, but Vice President-elect J.D. Vance has presented a plan suggesting that Russia could retain territories seized in Ukraine.
Some American military and intelligence officials are becoming more pessimistic about Ukraine's overall prospects, noting that Russia is systematically gaining ground, both in Kursk and in eastern Ukraine. Officials claim that the losses are partly due to Ukraine's inability to address critical shortages in its military strength.
President Biden strongly supports Ukraine, urging Congress to approve billions of dollars in aid and providing military intelligence to help Kyiv conduct the war.
One Western official said that Ukraine's unexpected attack on Kursk in August scattered its forces on the eastern front, making them more vulnerable to Russian attacks. However, this official and American officials emphasised that Ukraine still has a strong defence in Kursk and can hold positions for some time at least.
1,200 casualties daily
American officials believe that Ukrainian troops will be difficult to dislodge, and Russian and North Korean forces are likely to suffer heavy losses, similar to Russia in eastern Ukraine. American and British military analysts currently estimate the daily Russian casualties to be more than 1,200 killed and injured.
The North Koreans will fight as light infantry without the support of armoured vehicles. The current Ukrainian artillery tactics and drone attacks have proven devastating for unprotected Russian soldiers.
That said, if Russia gains momentum, it may not stop at its border but might try to drive Ukrainian forces back farther. It is not clear if the North Korean government will authorize its forces to conduct sustained operations in Ukraine or if they are intended only for the Kursk counteroffensive, American defence officials say.
Some American officials believe that North Korea may order its troops to stop at the border, while Russian forces continue actions deeper into Ukraine.
American officials are uncertain how effective the North Korean units will be, given their lack of experience in ground combat.
