Paris in turmoil as Bardella's rise threatens Macron's reign

Jordan Bardella, a politician groomed by Marine Le Pen, led the far-right National Rally to victory in the French European Union elections. He might deliver another blow to Emmanuel Macron during the scheduled early parliamentary elections. His appetite for power may be greater than it appears to his promoter.

Bardella, in a dark suit and tie, with a snow-white shirt, displayed an expression of deadly seriousness. Speaking to the nation on 9 June 2024, Emmanuel Macron appeared to be at a funeral. From his perspective, it somewhat was—the far-right National Rally (RN) overwhelmingly won (ultimately 31.4%) the French European Parliamentary elections.

"I have heard your message, your concerns, and I will not leave them unanswered. France needs a decisive majority to act in harmony," said the president from the Élysée Palace. Moments later, he announced the dissolution of the National Assembly and early elections, with the first round to be held on 30 June, and the second on 7 July.

The presidential party Renaissance (with 14.6% support) reacted with disbelief. The Socialists (13.8%) cried out about "stopping the fascists."

Jordan Bardella, chairman of the RN, quickly tweeted: "We are ready to create a new majority for France: I call on the French to join us."

Marine Le Pen, who groomed Bardella and now steers the party from behind the scenes, stated: "We are ready to take power." She anticipated RN seizing real power only after the 2027 elections. However, Macron himself might inadvertently hasten this. The RN is the clear favourite in the elections. If it gains a majority, the president will still oversee defence and foreign policy but will lose control over domestic policy.

For the first time in over twenty years, since the presidency of Jacques Chirac, when the Prime Minister was the Socialist Lionel Jospin, cohabitation might occur. If this happens, Bardella will be the youngest prime minister in French history. He will turn 29 in September.

In the days following Macron's address, "shock" was perhaps the most commonly used word in France and Europe. This sentiment can be summarised in one point - RN's view of what the European Union should be like differs from Macron's in nearly every detail.

It is possible that Macron’s decision to dissolve the parliament was based precisely on the French fear of anti-EU sentiment. In the last presidential elections, it had earned him a victory over Marine Le Pen. However, much has changed in French politics since 2022.

"Frexit," withdrawal from the euro, exiting the Schengen Area - this was the predatory Le Pen before the 2017 presidential elections—the result - a loss to Macron. Leaving NATO's integrated military command, changing the EU from within, and ambiguous stances on the war in Ukraine was Le Pen’s stance in the 2022 campaign—the outcome - a loss to Macron.

After these losses, the long-time RN leader changed tactics. She applied layers of political makeup to mask the imperfections of Jordan Bardella, whom she appointed as the leader of her party. This strategy worked, and now he, alongside his mentor, is the driving force of the RN.

The year 2017 he was proved to be a turning point in his career. At just 22 years old, he already had a few years of activity within the National Front (the previous name of the National Rally until 2018). His most tremendous success was entering the regional council of Île-de-France in 2015.

After that campaign, his then-girlfriend Kelly Betesh gained more fame than Bardella. She appeared on National Front posters. On one side of the poster, she posed with her face painted in national colours with the caption: "Choose your suburb," on the other side with a Muslim headgear with the slogan: "Vote for the front!".

Bardella's choice of the far-right party might seem surprising - he is a descendant of Italian economic migrants. The budding politician explained that he chose the right because he saw how migrants were causing the degradation of the suburbs of French cities. He referenced the Gabriel Péri neighborhood in Saint-Denis, where he grew up.

His story of a poor childhood contrasts with the fact that his father was relatively wealthy and, although he divorced Jordan's mother, he paid for his son's education at a good Catholic school.

In September 2017, Jordan Bardella was still recovering from an unsuccessful bid for the National Assembly, but it was then that he hit the jackpot in the political lotto. Kerridwen Chatillon, his next girlfriend and daughter of Frédéric Chatillon, a long-time friend and advisor of Marine Le Pen, helped him achieve this.

According to Pierre-Stéphane Fort, author of the book "Le Grand Remplaçant" ("The Great Replacement") about the "hidden face" of the new far-right idol, it was Kerridwen who first arranged a meeting between Bardella and Le Pen - she enabled him to visit the RN leader’s estate.

For him, it must have been an experience comparable to Islam’s followers' pilgrimage to Mecca. Introduced by someone from the trusted circle, he could finally speak with the politician he idolised for longer than a few moments during a campaign. He used this time to the second - in less than two weeks, Marine Le Pen announced the name of the new party spokesman. It was "Jordan Bardella".

Lightning-fast - that’s how one could describe Bardella's career progression after entering Marine Le Pen's inner circle. Climbing the ranks through chairing the RN youth wing, he became the leader of the party's list for the European Parliament in 2019. He performed brilliantly. The far-right won over 5 million votes, narrowly surpassing Macron's supporting group.

Bardella himself turned out to be a poor MEP - in the last term, he skipped most debates, and his "yield" amounted to submitting 21 amendments. He could be excused by the fact that he was already the RN's vice-chairman, and national matters concerned him more than European ones.

The National Rally congress, held in July 2021 in Perpignan, was officially meant to extend Marine Le Pen's leadership. That, with no competitors, was a mere formality. The actual stake was the position of the first vice-chairman. The competitors were Louis Aliot, the mayor of Perpignan, and Jordan Bardella. The fight was unequal, for although Aliot was one of the long-standing pillars of the RN and recently Marine Le Pen's life partner, her (political) heart was already beating for Bardella. Nolwenn Olivier's (Marine Le Pen’s niece) heart, on the other hand, was beating for the MEP at that time (Bardella is still accused of using Nolwenn in an instrumental way, although both deny it).

Nolwenn Olivier was very close to Marine Le Pen herself. Before the 2022 presidential elections, she advised her to appear on TikTok and to change her wardrobe from dark clothes to lighter, more vibrant ones.

The party election result was predictable. The young man not only outmatched his older and more experienced competitor but in September practically took over the party's leadership. That's because the RN leader suspended her chairmanship for the duration of the presidential campaign. This temporary leadership was made permanent in November 2022. Marine Le Pen decided that it would be easier for her to fight for the presidency in 2027 if the RN were governed - at least officially - by someone else.

The RN congress elected Jordan Bardella (85% of the votes). Since then, French media have been searching for "skeletons in the closet" of the far-right leader. The result, to put it mildly, is poor. For example, "Le Monde" reported attempts to link him with an anonymous Twitter account containing racist content. Bardella denied it, and there was a lack of solid evidence.

"Le Pen's Cyborg," "Le Pen's Golden Boy," "RN's Golden Child" - French media are vying to coin descriptions for Jordan Bardella. Marine Le Pen herself simply calls him a "Heavenly Gift". And from her perspective, that's probably how it looks.

That she invested not only politically but also financially in him is mentioned by the already referenced Pierre-Stéphane Fort. According to him, media training for the RN leader cost hundreds of thousands of euros. It wasn't easy, as "Bardella has a predisposition for communicating with voters and is good at it, but it's not innate; it's the result of several years of work."

Pascal Humeau, a former RN communications specialist, was more critical of Bardella: "He was an empty shell with a rather limited personality." Humeau believes that even his enthusiasm and now-famous smile are the results of painstaking training.

If a small fortune was indeed invested in Bardella, the money was well spent. PR experts quickly realised that he has a natural talent for charming voters, especially younger ones. This is evident, for instance, in the fact that he currently has 1.7 million French followers on TikTok, and the number grows with each day of the campaign.

His videos cover almost everything: drinking wine with winemakers, signing diaries for children, promoting French honey, and delivering fiery speeches at rallies (after interest in his relationship with Nolwenn Olivier, he stopped posting private photos). A hit video featured him launching the election campaign in a nightclub with drinks and a DJ. Whatever the RN leader posts, the views reach hundreds of thousands or millions.

Most clips share a few features. A “hug” comes first during a selfie, followed by the obligatory flash of white teeth. The RN boss always looks like he walked out of a photo shoot - suit (sometimes, but not too often, a turtleneck), tie, impeccable hairstyle. If casual, it's controlled casual.

It's a good recipe for how to achieve star status as a politician - Bardella is the only politician to appear on the list of the 50 most popular personalities of the weekly JDD, ranking 30th. He clearly surpassed Marine Le Pen, who in the previous edition was also in the "Top 50" but only in 48th place. This demonstrates his undisputed (and growing) prominence in the party leadership as well as in the consciousness of the French.

In France, there is even talk of "Bardellomania" or the "Bardella phenomenon" - among voters aged 18-24, he can count on about 30% support. Compared to the 2019 European elections, he also gained among the over-65 electorate in the last election - a rise from 19% to the current 23%.

It’s likely that his speeches appeal to the oldest voters—the RN leader has become quite a good speaker. He demonstrated this, for example, in a debate where he faced Prime Minister Gabriel Attal before the European Parliament elections. Although commentators judged that the prime minister performed better, their duel did nothing to change the polls.

After announcing early elections, Jordan Bardella has bombarded voters with ideas for France. First and foremost, however, he reassures: "I recognise Russia as a multi-dimensional threat, both for France and Europe". He also assures that France will continue to support Ukraine "logistically and with equipment" (with the caveat that it won’t be equipment that can strike targets in Russia). This declaration is essential because Marine Le Pen has been repeatedly criticised for downplaying Vladimir Putin's policies, taking multi-million euro loans from Russian banks, and supporting the annexation of Crimea.

Bardella promises to radically limit the influx of migrants - he proposes, among other things, that illegal residence be considered a crime. He also wants those who haven't taken up work for a year to lose their right to stay. He plays on the fear of Islamic terrorism, and the French, recalling the 2015 Paris attacks and the 2016 Nice attack, are still shaken.

"There isn't a French person who isn't concerned about their safety" - Bardella reiterated during Tuesday's debate, where he again appeared with Gabriel Attal and Manuel Bompard representing the New Popular Front. The RN leader expanded on the idea of abolishing the "right of soil," which grants citizenship to the children of foreigners born in France. He also advocated for limiting access to medical care for those without residence documents.

He promises farmers a programme to increase the consumption of French products. For employers, he proposes the possibility of giving employees a 10% raise without employer contributions for five years, and for employees, he promises to reverse Macron's pension reform (the retirement age is to be gradually raised to 64).

The RN leader mentions lowering VAT on energy and fuel and eliminating family benefits for families of underage repeat offenders. He also announced large expenditure increases and tax cuts, which for a country where public debt stands at 110% of GDP, could have disastrous consequences.

A herald of the looming war with Brussels is the announcement of reducing France's membership fee. "There’s no reason why everyone should cut spending but not the EU. The less we give to the EU, the more will be left to support the French economy," Bardella said.

The RN also does not hide that it has not abandoned the idea of stripping the European Commission of decision-making power. It also doesn't want Balkan countries and Ukraine to join the Community.

The French like what Jordan Bardella is saying. According to polls by Elabe and Ipsos, the RN might gain from 35.5% to 36% of the votes. The New Popular Front (left-wing coalition) could get 27-29.5%. The presidential bloc, which includes Renaissance, recorded 19.5-20% support.

Such results mean that the RN might count on 250-280 parliamentary seats, with an absolute majority of 289. For the far-right, this is an extraordinary result. In 2007, when Jean-Marie Le Pen still led the National Front, the party had no representatives in the National Assembly. When his daughter dethroned him, the rise began. 2012 - 2 seats, 2017 - 8, 2022 - 89.

With the polls' projected vote distribution, the presidential camp, which currently holds 245 seats, would get only 90-110 places. No wonder Emmanuel Macron is losing his nerve.

In the "Generation Do It Yourself" podcast, he said that the RN and New Popular Front's programme could lead to civil war in the country. Macron's criticism was mainly directed at the RN. He argued that when addressing issues like crime or migration, the far right relies on "stigmatization or division." The president argued: "They categorise people based on their religion or origin and thus lead to division and civil war."

Bardella responded to him on M6: "The president should not speak this way. I want to restore security for all French people."

Marine Le Pen hit harder on RTL radio: "In every presidential campaign, he [Macron - ed.] said: either me or chaos. I think the French have realised that it is he who is the chaos, he embodied chaos from the moment he was first elected."

Immediately after the elections were announced, Bardella clearly stated that he is playing for the entire pot, an absolute majority. He assures that he won't head the government if the RN doesn't achieve this. Meanwhile, Emmanuel Macron announced that he wouldn't step down in the case of an RN victory.

The first doesn't need to hurry anywhere; the second knows that stepping down in 2027, he will be remembered as the one who allowed the ultimate collapse of the "sanitary cordon" around the far right. Thanks to his policies, the chances have increased that the presidential elections in three years will also be won by a right-wing candidate.

Marine Le Pen sees herself in this role (unlike her, Macron hasn’t groomed a successor). The biggest threat to her lifelong ambition could be her protégé, whom she has moulded to her needs like a clay figurine. According to a poll published in May, 52% of RN voters would support Bardella, and 43% would support Le Pen. The question is whether he is ready for such a confrontation within the "family"—after all, it's just a poll.

The Le Pen-Bardella war, though purely hypothetical at this point, might not be necessary at all. In September, a trial begins in a Paris court where Marine Le Pen is among those accused of embezzling EU funds. It's about allegedly financing party activities with EU money. A verdict is expected in November.

If found guilty, Le Pen could not fight for the coveted presidency. For Jordan Bardella, it would be another win in the political lotto of France.

Paweł Wiejas, journalist for Wirtualna Polska