TechNuclear deterrence, the tightrope of power among US, UK, France, and Russia

Nuclear deterrence, the tightrope of power among US, UK, France, and Russia

When discussing nuclear deterrence, the United States usually comes to mind first, being the world's principal military power. Given its global commitments, it's hardly surprising that the US has the most advanced nuclear forces and strategies for their utilization. Similar doctrines are also prevalent in European NATO countries and Russia.

ASMP-A missile under the fuselage of the Rafale aircraft

Images source: © Press materials | MBDA

Bartłomiej Kucharski

27 April 2024 17:44

Washington's approach is rooted both in its unparalleled expertise in developing and producing nuclear weapons and in its unique historical use of them against Japan in 1945. Despite its limited financial resources compared to the US, Europe also has its achievements in this field.

United Kingdom - a (not so) sovereign power

Since 1953, the United Kingdom has maintained its nuclear arsenal. Government documents highlight that the country's nuclear deterrence is to discourage any adversaries from aggression by significantly increasing the costs of an attack on the Isles or NATO allies. Thus, the presence of nuclear weapons aims to deter enemies, particularly from considering a nuclear assault.

The UK's policy makes it clear that the mere existence of its nuclear capability acts as a deterrent. Notably, London has avoided specifics about the circumstances under which it might deploy nuclear weapons, adding to its unpredictability and thereby enhancing deterrence. However, the use of nuclear weapons is contemplated only in dire situations, such as self-defence or in defence of NATO allies, with the Prime Minister having the final say.

Currently, the UK lacks a so-called nuclear triad, possessing only submarines as platforms for launching nuclear ballistic missiles of the Vanguard class. These vessels are expected to be replaced within the next ten years by the more advanced Dreadnought-class submarines, projected to be among the world's leading submarine technologies.

It's important to note that the UK’s strike capabilities are not fully independent. At the same time, it develops and manufactures its warheads; it relies on the Trident II ballistic missiles from the US, operated in partnership with the US Navy. This arrangement indicates a partial reliance on its powerful ally across the Atlantic.

French nuclear forces

France began developing nuclear weapons shortly after the UK. It achieved this in part despite American objections, as initially (the US stance shifted under Nixon) the US discouraged France's nuclear aspirations. France shares research facilities and nuclear weapon technologies with the UK under the 2010 Teutates Treaty.

The French deterrence strategy, likened to a tango, alternates between assurances of peace and firm stances. Since its initial nuclear test in 1960, France has adopted a strategy of minimal deterrence, aiming to impose maximal, unacceptable losses on foes despite having a smaller arsenal than, for instance, the Soviet Union.

This strategy, shaped by the experiences of the Suez Crisis, remains pertinent. France regularly conducts military exercises, such as the Poker exercises, where the air force practices attacking adversaries using ASMP-A cruise missiles launched from Rafale aircraft.

Like the UK, France reserves the use of nuclear weapons for "extreme circumstances justified by the defence of vital interests." However, what constitutes "vital interests" is left deliberately vague. Additionally, France maintains the option of a singular, preemptive nuclear strike as a stark warning, alongside its defensive posturing.

The decision to deploy nuclear weapons in France rests with the president, who defines the state's "vital interests" at the start of his tenure. According to President Emmanuel Macron, these interests now include European allies, periodically bringing the concept of a French "nuclear umbrella" into discussion.

Moreover, the French deterrence doctrine appears to extend beyond European NATO members. Following Russian aggression in Ukraine, France demonstrated its readiness to escalate, a stance underlined by the deployment of three out of four French SLBMs for patrols. Despite not being a member of NATO's Nuclear Planning Group, France, in cooperation with the US and the UK, has responded to ambiguous Russian signals concerning nuclear weapon use in Ukraine.

Paris maintains an arsenal of 290 warheads, with plans to exceed 300. Unlike the UK, France has air and sea delivery systems for its nuclear arsenal, including Rafale M aircraft equipped with supersonic cruise missiles and Le Triomphant-class submarines armed with M51 ballistic missiles, which recently underwent successful testing.

Russia as the main threat

The European nuclear capability was developed in response to the Soviet Union's capabilities. Despite being economically weaker, Russia maintains what is likely the largest nuclear arsenal, presenting a significant threat, particularly through its complete nuclear triad.

Amidst the conflict in Ukraine, Moscow has frequently resorted to nuclear rhetoric as a means of intimidation. Its 2020 doctrine outlines specific conditions under which nuclear weapons could be deployed, including in response to attacks threatening the state's very existence.

Western experts and even some Russian officials hint at the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons for de-escalatory purposes. However, the severe repercussions of nuclear weapon use, a legacy of destruction witnessed in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, have fostered a global taboo against such actions, limiting Russia's nuclear threats to mere posturing for now.