NATO's new strategy in Baltic threatens Russian naval dominance

The inclusion of Sweden and Finland in NATO has shifted the balance of power in the Baltic Sea, but it hasn't exhausted Russia's list of bad news. As admitted by the deputy commander of the Russian navy, Moscow is concerned about Bornholm and the potential deployment of American cruise missiles there, especially since such a scenario is becoming increasingly likely.

Admiral Vladimir Kasatonov, deputy commander of the Russian navy, recently shared these concerns, as quoted by the Bulgarian Military. The Russian commander refers to American maneuvers, during which, in 2023 and May 2024, Typhon launchers were located on Bornholm.

Why is this specific model of American weapon so troubling to the Russians? They have a good reason: although Typhon may seem unassuming, it's a technical revolution, giving the United States exceptional capabilities.

Thanks to this new weapon, the Pentagon can airlift the system to any region of the world, which in some respects is equivalent to a missile cruiser. Instead of a multi-day voyage needed to reposition a ship, this takes just a few hours.

What is Typhon and what does the presence of this weapon on Bornholm change?

The Typhon system is a new weapon – the first prototype battery was delivered by Lockheed Martin in December 2022. In terms of capabilities, Typhon is the land-based equivalent of the maritime Mk 41 VLS launchers.

This is a standard vertical launch system for Western navies (in Poland, it will be used on Miecznik frigates). Its key advantage is versatility, as Mk 41 VLS is not limited to one type of missile but allows the launch of many different types: from Tomahawk cruise missiles to various types of anti-aircraft missiles to rocket torpedoes designed to combat submarines.

In practice, the Typhon system gives the U.S. Army capabilities previously reserved for aviation and the navy, i.e., the ability to strike targets deep within enemy territory.

Although it is a significant simplification, Typhon is—in terms of armament—a land-transferred American missile cruiser that can be airlifted to any location worldwide within hours. An example of Typhon’s mobility was the recent transfer of the system to the Philippines, where within just 15 hours, the battery was moved 13,000 kilometers (8,100 miles).

This is possible because all system elements – launchers (each with four launch chambers), a command vehicle, and a transport and loading vehicle – are housed in standard 12-meter (40-foot) containers.

This makes it difficult to detect and track the system during movement while also facilitating transport, especially on a strategic level. By placing everything necessary for operation in containers, Typhon can be easily moved by air, tractor-trailers, or even by rail.

The Typhon system launchers are adapted to launch two types of missiles. The first is RGM-109M Tomahawk Block V cruise missiles with a range exceeding 1,770 kilometres (1,100 miles).

Although they entered service in the early 1980s, they are continuously developed and improved. Their great advantage is the ability to fly at very low altitudes – which makes detection and destruction difficult – as well as their guidance system. Although they use satellite and inertial navigation, the key system is TERCOM (Terrain Contour Matching).

Thanks to this, the missile tracks the terrain over which it passes, compares it with its own map and satellite photos, and, based on this, can accurately determine its position, finding the target regardless of interference.

The second missile launched from Typhon is the RIM-174 SM-6 ERAM. This long-range anti-aircraft missile can also act as an anti-ship missile. The SM-6 stands out for its size – it is over 6.4 meters (21 feet) long, weighs 1,500 kilograms (3,300 pounds), and is built from two stages powered by solid fuel.

When launched from the ground, the SM-6 can destroy a target up to 370 kilometres (230 miles) away. However, the actual range depends on many factors, such as the target’s speed, size, altitude, and manoeuvres.

It is worth noting that the United States is testing the possibility of using the SM-6 as an air-to-air missile, giving the U.S. Air Force the ability to engage adversaries at record distances. It is estimated that when launched from a fast and high-flying fighter, the SM-6 range could reach up to 500 kilometers (310 miles).

Although launchers were deployed on Bornholm without missiles during exercises, delivering Tomahawks to the island was only a matter of decision. In practice, the Americans, by deploying their new weapon to the Danish island, rehearsed the ability to close the Baltic Sea to both the Russian fleet independently and—to some extent—aircraft.

It is worth noting that similar exercises – although on a smaller scale – are also conducted by Poland in cooperation with allies. Thanks to the Naval Missile Unit equipped with NSM anti-ship missiles with a range of 180 kilometres (110 miles), Poland can secure both its own coast and part of the Baltic Sea along with the coast of the Kaliningrad Oblast.

Moreover, Poland has already practiced transferring elements of the Naval Missile Unit. Polish launchers have been sent to Romania, where Polish weapons would defend Romania’s Black Sea coast, and also to the Swedish island of Gotland, ensuring control over the central part of the Baltic Sea and access to the Gulf of Finland. This is Russia’s window to the world, which after the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO has become exceptionally narrow and—in case of conflict—difficult to utilize.