"The Kremlin persists in framing its unprovoked military aggression against Ukraine as something fundamentally different from the reality, aiming to extend Russian federal law's reach over sovereign nations," the Institute reported.
ISW highlighted that the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs' wanted list includes Zelensky, his main political rival, former President Petro Poroshenko, and the land forces commander, General Oleksandr Pavluk. It's noteworthy that even Russian state media has pointed out that the specific crimes they're accused of were not detailed.
"Russian state media has commented that the crimes for which Zelensky, Pavluk, or Poroshenko are wanted were not specified by the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs. A Russian military blogger expressed hope that Zelensky's arrest warrant would deter him from visiting countries with an extradition treaty with Russia," detailed the Institute.
In its latest assessment, the American Institute connects Russia's targeting of Zelensky with the operation "Majdan3". A primary aim appears to be the delegitimisation of Zelensky's presidency, which is due to end in May. The ongoing war precludes the possibility of holding new elections, meaning Zelensky will stay in office.
"The decision to list Zelensky, Pavluk, and Poroshenko on Russia's wanted list is likely part of the Russian information campaign 'Majdan 3' and wider Kremlin efforts to discredit Ukraine's current and past pro-Western administrations, stemming from the Ukrainian Euromaidan revolution in 2014, and to isolate Ukraine diplomatically," the authors stressed.
They further evaluated that Moscow's actions are an extension of its objective to spread Russian jurisdiction over sovereign European and post-Soviet nations.
"Previously, the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs had added officials from NATO countries - such as Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania - to its wanted list for alleged violations of Russian federal law within NATO territories. ISW maintains that the Kremlin's jurisdiction expansion efforts are geared towards creating conditions that justify potential future Russian aggression against NATO members," the ISW report elaborates.
