Kazakhstan poised to supply fuel to Russia amidst Ukrainian refinery strikes

According to Reuters, Kazakhstan is set to prepare about 121,000 tons of fuel for the Kremlin should Russia experience a gasoline shortage. Moscow's request comes in the wake of Ukrainian attacks on refineries, which have diminished Putin's regime's production capabilities.

According to a Reuters source, an agreement regarding using Kazakhstan's reserves has already been reached. However, an adviser to the Kazakh Minister of Energy has refuted claims that Russia made such a request.

Belarus has also consented to supply fuel to Russia.

For weeks, Ukrainians have targeted Russian refineries with drone attacks. In March, the HUR and SBU confirmed strikes on refineries in locations such as Slavyansk in the Krasnodar Krai, Novoshakhtinsk in the Rostov region, as well as Ryazan, Kstovo in the Nizhny Novgorod region, and Kirshi in the Leningrad region. Reports from both Russian and Ukrainian media also detailed raids on refineries in Syzran and Novokuibyshevsk in the Samara region and a fire near a thermal power plant in Petersburg.

At the start of April, Reuters estimated that the out-of-operation processing capacities of Russian refineries due to drone attacks in the first quarter of 2024 amounted to about 4.6 million tons of crude oil (approximately 370,500 barrels per day), equivalent to around 7% of the processing capacities of all facilities in the country. Other data suggests about 10%.

Belsat notes that, per Russian authorities, the "situation in the fuel market is stable, and reserves are ample". Notably, from 1 March for six months, gasoline export has been banned. Last autumn, Russians reported unusually high fuel prices, by their standards, at gas stations. To manage the situation, the Kremlin initiated a temporary export ban on gasoline and diesel oil to replenish the domestic market. The embargo has since been relaxed, but it was reinstated with full force for gasoline.

The export ban exempts countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (including Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia, and Kyrgyzstan), South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Mongolia, and Uzbekistan.

"Kyiv Independent" indicates that, faced with chronic gasoline shortages, Kazakhstan will curtailed fuel exports until the end of 2024.