Ukrainian strikes shift Russia from exporter to fuel importer

Since the start of Ukrainian attacks on refineries, Russia's fuel production has dropped by roughly 4.6 million metric tonnes of oil. Petrol prices at stations have increased by 12 percent, with more hikes anticipated this month. What implications might a sustained offensive against Russian refineries have for the battlefield?

Due to regular strikes in the Russian oil industry, Russia is gradually transitioning from being the third-largest producer and exporter of fuels to becoming an importer. Since late February, over 15 Russian refineries and several oil depots have been targeted. As a result, gasoline production has fallen by more than 10 percent and crude oil by almost 4 percent.

Petrol prices at Russian stations have risen by an average of 12 percent over three weeks. Russian media suggest that further price hikes are likely in the coming weeks. If attacks continue, the civilian market might experience a significant shortage. However, the military front has priority in fuel supply, implying that refinery attacks won't directly affect operations in Ukraine.

Another concern is the impact on Russia's finances, public morale, and international stance. The mining industry and fossil fuel processing constitute the Kremlin's largest revenue sources, making up 60 percent of total exports.

To prevent shortages and domestic price surges, the Kremlin initiated a six-month ban on petrol exports starting on March 1. Domestic petrol prices have already increased.

Similar trends are observable in international markets, where the average price rise has been nearly 13 percent since the start of the year. This has especially caused worry in the United States, where escalating fuel prices could adversely affect the outcome of the autumn elections. Consequently, politicians in Washington have collectively criticized Ukrainian strikes on deep targets within Russia.

As reported by Bloomberg, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin cautioned that the recent Ukrainian attacks could lead to a domino effect in the global energy market.

- Ukraine is better served in going after tactical and operational targets that can directly influence the current fight - Austin mentioned during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing.

Meanwhile, Pentagon spokesperson Pat Ryder stressed repeatedly that the United States does not help Kyiv organise attacks on Russian territory.

- The assistance we provide to Ukraine is meant to support its defence and the reclaiming of sovereign territory. We do not offer any help for actions outside of Ukrainian territory - Ryder clarified.

American politicians are striving to distance themselves from any attacks executed on Russian soil, intending to avoid exacerbating the situation and destabilizing the fuel markets. The French, Germans, and British, who back Ukrainian strikes, hold a differing view.

This reveals a notable discrepancy in the Alliance's policies between European nations and Washington, which appears to still misunderstand Europe's predicament. Ukrainians appreciate Europe's support and affirm their right to target Russian strategic assets.

The spree of attacks has also exposed the significant vulnerability of the Russian anti-aircraft defence system. Ukrainian drones have launched over 35 attacks on Russian infrastructure, with about 80 percent hitting their mark. One drone, modified from an Aeroprakt A-22 ultralight aircraft, travelled more than 1,300 kilometres to the Republic of Tatarstan, untouched, striking the third-largest refinery, which was completely unguarded.

Yet Ukrainians are realistic about the strikes' impacts. They acknowledge only a short-term effect, which doesn’t directly translate to military action progress.