In an unexpected move at the beginning of December last year, soldiers from the 98th Paratrooper Division of the Israel Defense Forces struck deep into Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip, considered the Hamas stronghold. Despite their efforts and four months of heavy fighting, Hamas leaders remain at large, and the fate of 133 hostages is still unknown.
The withdrawal from Khan Yunis indicates the Israeli offensive operations in the Gaza Strip have largely stopped, leaving only the 933rd Nahal Infantry Brigade in the area. This brigade is notably linked to the attack on the World Central Kitchen convoy on April 1, which resulted in the deaths of seven volunteers, including the Polish Daniel Soból.
At the war's height, around 30,000 to 40,000 soldiers from 20 brigades of the Israel Defense Forces were engaged in the Gaza Strip. Now, Israel maintains control of only the Netzarim corridor south of Gaza City, effectively splitting the Palestinian territory in two. The corridor is named after a Jewish settlement evacuated in 2005 by then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a different perspective, suggesting that Israel is working towards freeing hostages and defeating Hamas as part of ceasefire negotiations in Cairo. He stressed the importance of capturing the city of Rafah to achieve victory, hinting at a future operation.
Rafah, situated on the border with Egypt, is the last major city not yet stormed by Israelis. About 1.5 million civilians have gathered there, fleeing from the bombings and fighting in other parts of Gaza. Israel has refrained from attacking Rafah, largely due to international pressure and the potential for massive civilian casualties.
The Hamas-controlled Ministry of Health reports over 33,000 Palestinian deaths, mostly women and children since the war began. In contrast, the Israeli army claims to have killed 12,000 terrorists while losing 604 soldiers, 260 of whom were in the Gaza Strip.
Ongoing talks in Cairo about a formal ceasefire and prisoner exchange are fraught with tension, as conflicting information is leaked by all parties involved in negotiations. The discussions have been dragging on for weeks without a clear outcome, as both sides vie over details that could influence the continuation of the conflict or the perception of victory. Netanyahu faces pressure from the escalating humanitarian crisis and the Israeli public's demand for the hostages' release, a situation Hamas views as an opportunity.
Iran's involvement adds complexity to the scenario, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi promising retaliation against Israel. This backdrop of tension could potentially spark a regional war, although a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip might offer a way towards de-escalation.
The situation remains volatile, with the potential for an Israeli offensive on Rafah or an Iranian attack on Israel. Despite the dangers, there is still hope for a ceasefire and a step back from the brink of a broader conflict.
