Israel and Hezbollah on the brink of devastating conflict, experts warn

Recent Israeli attacks on Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Beirut might signal an escalation in the Middle East. These attacks followed a missile raid by Hezbollah on Israel's Golan Heights, which killed twelve children and adolescents. According to the "FP" authors, there is a possibility that both sides might decide to avoid further conflict, although the chances of this seem slim.

Open war would be devastating, but it might still come. It is difficult to balance violence, and retaliatory attacks could create a dangerous cycle fueling the conflict, as assessed by Daniel Byman, a professor at Georgetown University in Washington, and Seth G. Jones, who heads the national security programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington (CSIS).

A potential full-scale conflict with Hezbollah would pose a significant threat and challenge to Israel not seen in years. Its population would face disruptions greater than those after Hamas's attack on 7 October 2023. However, the Israeli army, which has been preparing for such a war for a long time, would likely cause significant destruction in Lebanon, experts assessed.

The United States should continue its efforts towards de-escalation. Still, it should also be prepared for its failure and focus on limiting Iran’s influence in the conflict while conveying to Hezbollah that the US will firmly support Israel, Byman and Jones emphasised. They added that an open war could also engulf Iraq and Syria, where Iran-backed militias are operating. Israel would also have to contend with attacks from Yemeni Houthi rebels, another pro-Iranian force in the region.

The authors reminded us that Hezbollah is one of the best-armed non-state armies in the world, possessing between 120,000 and 200,000 projectiles. Although most of them are simple rockets or drones, the group also has Iranian Fateh-110 ballistic missiles, which can strike all over Israel. These missiles were supplied by Iran to Russia for the war in Ukraine, according to intelligence reports. Hezbollah fighters have combat experience gained during battles on the side of President Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria.

Hezbollah is a much more dangerous opponent than Hamas, with whom the Israeli military has been fighting for nearly ten months in the Gaza Strip, the "FP" analysis emphasised.

Hezbollah has been engaged in a conflict with Israel of varying intensity for decades, and in 2006, they fought a war lasting over a month. The Israeli army, preparing for another major confrontation with this group, would likely act efficiently and brutally, Byman and Jones stated. However, they noted that despite the technological and firepower advantage, the Israeli military is also tired of the prolonged conflict in the Gaza Strip. Shortages of ammunition and spare parts, along with the long-lasting service of reservists, burden society and the economy.

The experts pointed out that both sides' use of drones will be an important factor in shaping the course of a potential conflict. They said that the war in Ukraine highlighted the extent to which unmanned aerial vehicles can change the nature of the modern battlefield. They noted that both Israel and Hezbollah already have experience operating drones.