Israel and Hezbollah on the brink: An impending conflict in Lebanon
The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is intensifying. There are increasingly more voices suggesting that the government in Jerusalem may decide to go to war with Lebanon. The situation could spiral out of control, however, war is not beneficial for either side.
Let us recall, on Saturday, after a rocket hit a football field in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, 12 people, including children, were killed, and several dozen were injured. Israel accused the Lebanese Hezbollah of the attack, which, however, denied the accusation. "Prime Minister Netanyahu made clear that Israel will not allow the murderous attack to simply pass on by, and that Hezbollah will pay a heavy price for this that it has not paid until this point".
The first response from Jerusalem has already happened. On Sunday, Israel attacked Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. Now, Netanyahu's government will meet to decide whether to invade its northern neighbour.
There is almost no doubt that Israel will attack. The conflict with Hezbollah has been ongoing for many years, according to the unwritten rules of the game. And according to these rules, Israel must respond very, very seriously. If an attack is being prepared, many questions arise regarding how it will be carried out.
"Escalation of the conflict"
Will Israel respond only with air strikes or also with ground attacks? If only from the air, what will be attacked? Only southern Lebanon or further inland – the entire Bekaa Valley, or perhaps the capital Beirut and centres of other cities? Or maybe these will be carefully selected Hezbollah targets in Lebanon or pro-Iranian militia targets in Syria? Many questions remain unanswered. Hezbollah's response depends on these answers. At each stage, it can go either way. However, if Israel decides on a ground attack, it is an invitation to war.
In his opinion, a full-scale war is still far off. "At each stage, there is an opportunity for de-escalation. Hence, the actions of American and European intermediaries, among other things, ensure that Israel does not attack the centres of large cities. That would be breaking the 'rules of the game'.
Meanwhile, there is a belief that Israel and Hezbollah are aware that a full-scale war benefits no one. There could be an escalation of the conflict, but in a way that keeps it in the public eye. Everyone wants to 'play' on the edge of safety and potential armed conflict, stirring up war sentiments.
In his opinion, however, the situation could get out of control.
"Throwing fire under a pile of tinder"
This is the nature of the Middle East. Conflicts in that region erupt like throwing fire under a pile of tinder. The fire is violent, quick, and short. In this case, Israel knows that clashes with Lebanon, in fact, with Hezbollah, will not be easy to win. This is not the Palestinian Hamas. It is a completely different structure with different forces, different experiences, and larger amounts of equipment. It would be a very bloody conflict.
Iran, Israel's eternal enemy, would be most pleased with the war. Traditionally, Tehran is in favour of weakening Jerusalem by any means. For Israel and Hezbollah, the war would bring nothing good. Israel still has to deal with this direction of the front. Shelling from southern Lebanon is still ongoing. As a result, Israel has already lost a lot of critical infrastructure facilities, reconnaissance aircraft, and precision ammunition. And it is conducting simultaneous operations in the Gaza Strip.
Israel currently has several open fronts. The West Bank, an air-sea battle with the Houthi movement in Yemen, the campaign in Syria, the battle with Iran at various levels, and the operation in the Gaza Strip. Jerusalem is thus deeply involved in various conflicts below the threshold of war. If Israel decided to go to war with Lebanon, it would need very strong American support. The USA would have to supply equipment and ammunition and do everything to prevent the conflict from spilling over further.
On Sunday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan added fuel to the fire by threatening an invasion of Israel to end the war that this country is waging against the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. "We must be very strong so that Israel can't do these ridiculous things to Palestine. Just like we entered Karabakh, just like we entered Libya, we might do similar to them," Erdogan said.
"We now have a dance of the roosters"
The Turkish president is threatening Israel to show his leadership strength in the Middle East.
Erdogan continually attacks Israel. He wants to be seen as the defender of the Middle East and the Muslim community. He believes he is the natural extension of the legacy of the Turkish sultanate and former times. However, Turkey, which controlled the Middle East during those times, considers that period the worst in its history. Erdogan's stories do not reflect reality. He flexes his muscles, playing into internal politics. There, verbal narrative is more important than translating words into reality. The Middle East likes vividness and strong verbal rhetoric. And Erdogan provides this.
Erdogan's statements are mainly a political practice in response to the internal situation in the country.
It may also be an action to cool Israeli politicians' enthusiasm. We now have a 'dance of the roosters.' Everyone is fluffing their feathers because something must happen. But the more they fluff their feathers, the greater the chance they will remain fluffing.
