Israel and Hezbollah: Border skirmishes herald possible full-scale war

The Lebanese-Israeli border is burning. Literally, this may be just a prelude to another great war. Everything is ready. The question hangs in the air: "Is this it?"

Only those who make - or have already made - the decision to take the step know the answer. If the conflict erupts, it could prove devastating for both Lebanon and Israel.

The night from Thursday to Friday was one of the worst in the nearly year-long heated phase of the war between Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israel. The forested hills of the border were illuminated by the red and yellow glow of fires ignited by hundreds of bombs dropped by aircraft. The Israelis reported the destruction of around 100 Hezbollah rocket launch sites containing a total of about 1,000 launchers.

The fires were also visible on the Israeli side, where several heavy rockets fell on Metula, the northernmost town in Israel. Despite the destruction, only one city security member was injured. The rest of the civilians, like tens of thousands of other border residents, were evacuated almost a year ago.

A few hours earlier, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah stated that the Israeli attack, using rigged pagers and other communication devices, which resulted in the death of over 30 members of his organisation and injuries to around 4,000, is a declaration of war. He claimed that the residents of northern Israel would not be able to safely return to their homes, as demanded by the government in Jerusalem.

At the same time, Israeli F-15s flew over Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, making it clear what the Israeli government and military think about these threats, especially since the Security Cabinet in Jerusalem expanded the list of goals of the current war.

In addition to the goals, which were previously to dismantle the Palestinian Hamas, free hostages, and prevent the re-creation of threats in the Gaza Strip, enabling the safe return of residents of northern Israel to their homes was added.

Then Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Benny Gantz were authorised to make decisions involving defensive and offensive actions to achieve this goal. This means shortening the decision-making process necessary to start operations in Lebanon.

The IDF, the Israel Defence Forces, is ready from a military perspective. Brigades that had been fighting in the Gaza Strip for a year were moved north, their strength rebuilt, and their training refreshed for combat in the difficult, mountainous terrain.

The ban on photographing and publishing information and photos from border areas and the recommendation that residents of areas adjacent to the evacuated zone stay near shelters evidence increased tension or an impending invasion. School classes were also cancelled.

Israeli commentators emphasise that the strike on Hezbollah using rigged pagers caused great confusion in the ranks of the Lebanese organisation, giving the IDF a week or two to carry out an attack. Moreover, the window of opportunity is closing, as the approaching usually rainy winter will cause the very heavy Israeli equipment, including 65-tonne Merkava IV tanks and 60-tonne Namer combat vehicles, to get bogged down on muddy mountain roads.

Despite the blows received in recent days and the death of around 400 members of the combat organisation, starting with its commander Fuad Shukr killed in Beirut on 30 July and many key officers, Hezbollah remains a very dangerous organisation.

They possess thousands of well-trained fighters and tens of thousands of rockets of various types, from simple Grads to cruise missiles and modern anti-tank missiles. The Lebanese, supported by Iran, also use drones, which the Israeli air defence system based on the Iron Dome, designed to combat rockets, has difficulty dealing with. Moreover, if the war expands, Shia militias from Syria, Iraq, and even Yemen could join the fight.

The threat of massive losses in Lebanon and Israel has so far prevented both sides from crossing the threshold of war. The fighting that has been ongoing for a year slowly escalated, at times threatening to explode, but each time, Hezbollah and Israel found a way to calm the situation. The United States helped in this, using both diplomacy and the threat of military intervention to prevent a regional war.

While the darkest scenario, namely the ignition of the entire region, might still be avoided, many indications suggest that the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is entering a new, dangerous phase. It is not so much getting out of control as it is transitioning to a stage of very intense military struggles, including ground fighting in southern Lebanon.