Is Moldova the next target? Experts weigh in on Russia's plans

The potential conflict between Russia and NATO is firing up experts' imaginations and sending shivers down their spines, as the effects of Putin's invasion of Ukraine are visible. However, there are reports that the Russian president's target will not be a state of the alliance but a small republic bordering Ukraine - Moldova. After all, Russian forces are stationed in the rebellious Transnistria.

Is the scenario of Russia's attack on Moldova realistic? "Fakt" asked experts about what could happen to this small country between the Prut and the Dniester. Moldova has recently taken a pro-European course - it wants to join the European Union and NATO.

However, the Kremlin does not understand this idea, especially since Vladimir Putin's regime has a tool of pressure on Moldova. In rebellious Transnistria, there are Russian troops. Some Moldovans do not hide their pro-Russian views. On February 28, Transnistria applied to the Kremlin for assistance in solving the economic conflict. Could Russia then invade this country?

"Fakt" asked experts about this issue. Jakub Pieńkowski, an analyst for Romania, Bulgaria, and Moldova at the Polish Institute of International Affairs, unequivocally indicates that first, the front in Ukraine would have to be broken.

Currently, Russian troops are beyond the Dniester. They would first have to occupy Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Odessa. Only then could the Russians reach Moldova. We can talk about attempts at destabilising the country, but not an invasion - says the expert.

In contrast, Dr. Robert Rajczyk from the University of Silesia underscored the military force distribution in both cases. Transnistria has about 1,500 Russian troops, 9,000 soldiers from the Transnistrian military, and several thousand reservists. Moldova has a force of 7,000 soldiers and 12,000 reservists. However, these numbers do not reflect the entire situation. Ukraine cuts off Russian units. They cannot exchange personnel or receive supplies. - These forces only have a few old tanks, no air force, and no heavy artillery. There is also no useable airport in Transnistria, nor even a chance for its repair - says Pieńkowski, emphasizing.

There is a Russian minority in Moldova. Some parties openly support the Kremlin. In Moldova, presidential elections are planned this year, and a large part of society has a pro-Russian stance, admits Dr. Robert Rajczyk. However, he notes that President Maia Sandu has taken a pro-European course. The country is fighting against Russian misinformation. However, Putin's regime may want to influence the results of the presidential or parliamentary elections.

Some citizens would like Moldova to return to Russian control. Regions like Gagauzia have stronger pro-Russian sympathies in Moldova. There is also an expectation that Russia will come to them one day, added Pieńkowski.