Hybrid warfare tactics escalate in the Baltic Sea
"It appears that the tactics of hybrid warfare in the Taiwan Strait are being transferred to the Baltic Sea," reported the Estonian broadcaster ERR, citing Toomas Hanso. "The recent incidents are proof of this," emphasises the expert.
"It is indeed the recent cuts of undersea cables in the Baltic that are said to be evidence supporting this claim," points out Toomas Hanso from the International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS).
In the past 18 months, several pipelines and power and internet cables, chiefly connecting Finland with Estonia, Sweden, and Germany, have been damaged in the Baltic. The latest such incident occurred on 25th December 2024. "In at least two cases, the cause of the cable damage was anchors dropped by ships. These are suspected acts of sabotage, but it's difficult to prove, which is typical of hybrid warfare," reads the ERR portal.
Copying tactics from the Far East
The ships involved in these incidents are flagged in Hong Kong, China, and the Cook Islands and have links to Russia. Toomas Hanso notes that these incidents are not isolated. In recent years, more than 30 fibre-optic cables connecting Taiwan to nearby islands have been severed by Chinese ships. The latest such incident occurred on 3rd January 2025.
According to the Estonian expert, what connects the events in the Taiwan Strait and the Baltic Sea are their frequency, the geopolitical tensions in both regions, and the direct impact they have had on national security and communication infrastructure.
After the Estlink 2 cable was damaged in December, Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania proposed changing international maritime regulations to prevent further incidents. However, experts point out that this will be challenging because it requires the consent of Russia and China.
NATO countries in the Baltic Sea region have agreed to establish a Baltic Guard to protect underwater pipelines and power and telecommunications cables.
