Russia's creeping annexation of Belarus heightens NATO fears
Russia is de facto annexing Belarus. Although this process is not yet complete, it has reached a stage where the Kremlin can threaten NATO's eastern countries and Ukraine through its satellite, warns the Institute for the Study of War.
In achieving its goals, Moscow will utilise the geographical, economic, and human resources of the neighbouring country. This process will not end even with the possible departure of Vladimir Putin, according to the analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
ISW calls this "Russia's Quiet Conquest." According to the institute's analysts, subjugating the Belarusian state, which threatens the total loss of sovereignty, is a long-term Kremlin strategy carried out in the military, political, and economic spheres.
The annexation of Belarus and the threat to Poland
"Russia’s de facto annexation of Belarus, if achieved and gone unchecked, would be the first effective annexation of an entire country since the Second World War and accelerate the Kremlin’s strategic effort to erode the international rules-based order in which all states are sovereign," the analysis states.
The Kremlin can achieve the actual annexation of Belarus even in the most favourable scenario, where the West helps Ukraine defeat Russia in the war and strengthens NATO's eastern flank. Such events will have serious consequences for the security of the countries on the eastern flank of the alliance, because Russia will be able to use Belarus both to rebuild its economy, and to prepare an attack, for example, on the Baltic countries and Poland, not to mention Ukraine itself, writes ISW.
Russia's use of Belarus
Analysts from the institute warn that the Kremlin has already achieved significant subjugation of Belarus and does not need additional integration successes to threaten NATO.
In achieving its goals, it will utilise the country's population, which numbers about 9 million, its geostrategic location on NATO's eastern flank, and its economic resources.
Russia has already used Belarus as a base for the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, gained access to its military bases, illegally "pushes" immigrants from impoverished African and Middle Eastern countries through it into European Union countries, and has also placed nuclear weapons there – "several dozen of the most modern nuclear weapons – bombs and missiles," according to Alexander Lukashenko.
Belarus's dependence on Moscow particularly intensified after 2020, when Putin supported Lukashenko's illegal seizure of power, after he lost the presidential election. The Kremlin largely eliminated Minsk's previous multivector foreign policy and has increasingly actively directed it since the end of 2020, practically forcing the local authorities to identify NATO as a strategic opponent of Belarus, observes ISW.
"This is a significant achieve- ment. Belarus was not always the Kremlin’s stooge; Belarus previously sought to expand its cooperation with NATO and the European union as recently as 2020, and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko notably refused to recognize Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea up until 2021," acknowledge the authors of the report.
The subjugation of Belarus to the Kremlin must be considered when planning NATO's actions, for conducting a conventional war, against which Russia is undertaking a comprehensive restructuring of forces, the analysts appeal. The strategic location of Belarus will play an important role in Russia's military positioning after 2025.
"Putin will not remain Russia’s president forever, but the Russian campaign in Belarus will likely persist well after Putin departs office," ISW concludes. "The Kremlin’s effort to annex Belarus is a major Russian governmental undertaking that — over the past two decades — has established its roots in a sustainable manner and has recently accumulated momentum," it added.
