Hungary's new political force: Magyar's rise challenges orbán

Back in autumn 2006, a recording of then Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány was leaked. During a closed party meeting in May 2006, he admitted to having lied to the Hungarians during that year's election campaign. The release of the recording, nearly six months later, sparked massive protests, the largest since 1989. Since then, Orbán has remained a dominant figure.

However, about six months ago, a change began with a new player emerging on the political scene.

Péter Magyar has been recognized by public opinion, including European observers, as the "leader of the opposition" and Hungary's potential hope for change. Although the poll results are impressive, the situation remains complex.

Magyar resembles a Robin Hood figure in Hungarian politics. Until February 2024, he lived in comfort, enjoying all the privileges provided by Viktor Orbán's system—a system he now seeks to dismantle.

Magyar capitalized on the moment to enter politics. The breakthrough came on 10 February of this year, coinciding with President Katalin Novák's resignation. Her departure was linked to a scandal involving a pardoned individual who had covered up cases of paedophilia. At the same time, Judit Varga, who as Minister of Justice signed the pardon request, also withdrew from politics. Magyar is her ex-husband, and the details of their relationship breakdown became public.

Péter Magyar’s motto became "do not be afraid" – directly referencing John Paul II. He set out from the beginning to portray himself as someone knowledgeable about the system, claiming he has enough "dirt" on it to dismantle it.

In nine months, he successfully ran for the European Parliament, introduced seven MEPs, and surpassed Orbán's coalition in polls. Magyar didn't create a party from scratch as it would have been impossible before the European Parliament elections. Instead, he revitalised a "dormant" registered group. TISZA stands for Tisztelet és Szabadság Párt, or the Respect and Freedom Party. It also refers to the country’s second-largest river (Tisza), hence their slogan "Tisza flows," implying its current will sweep away Fidesz-KDNP.

Interestingly, the revelations Magyar promised to disclose mainly include a recording with his then-wife discussing a legal matter. There hasn't been any "leak" of information that could incite street protests. Magyar aligns with the existing opposition's agenda, primarily centring around one point: defeating Orbán. He mentioned 21 points during the national holiday on 15 March, which, however, lack detailed solutions to Hungary's problems.

Some might argue that the programme appeals more to a sophisticated audience, but the fact remains that Magyar doesn’t offer specific positions on critical issues for Hungarians such as healthcare, education, and media. His speeches are rich in calls for freedom, pluralism, and funding, yet he provided slightly more details last Wednesday.

Magyar holds conservative views, resembling Fidesz-KDNP's non-radical stance from years past (sometimes being described as a "soft" version of Fidesz).

He stands against corruption (accusing the ruling majority of it), and is pro-European, although opposing deeper integration in favour of maintaining strong national parliaments. He shares an almost identical stance to Orbán on the Ukraine issue. Last week in the European Parliament, during a vote on financial aid to Ukraine, only liberal opposition MPs supported the measure, while Our Homeland Party voted against it. Fidesz-KDNP MPs "pretended" not to be present (by removing their voting cards) and TISZA MEPs abstained (as the only members of the European People's Party faction to do so). Notably, Péter Magyar himself was absent from the vote.

Magyar has introduced a fresh form of communication with voters. He launched a crowdfunding campaign to support both current activities and the 2026 election campaign. Various membership levels are available, depending on the donation amount.

The basic level is available for 3,000 forints a month (around £7), and the VIP level costs over 41,000 forints (approximately £95).

Magyar is active on Facebook, where he founded a group to engage with his supporters. In July, after a Russian attack on the Okhmatdyt Hospital in Kyiv, a discussion emerged in the TISZA group about Hungary's stance on the war, Orbán's reluctance to condemn Russia, and Hungary's perceived lack of assistance. Magyar initiated a fundraiser for Kyiv, loaded his distinctive van (painted in Hungarian national colours), and personally delivered the aid to Kyiv.

He organised similar support initiatives in Hungary, supplying fans and hygiene products to hospitals.

On Wednesday, 23 October, Hungary's national holiday, Magyar unveiled a bit of his plan to seize power in spring 2026. His goal is to address 16 years of Fidesz-KDNP rule, although practically difficult as the justice system is mostly aligned with Orbán. Joining the European Public Prosecutor's Office and holding mismanagement accountable could unlock European funds, reinvigorating the country.

Magyar aims to restore Hungary’s international standing, strengthen the Visegrád Group, and improve social conditions to decrease the number of Hungarians living below the poverty line. He promised pension and minimum wage increases and a constitutional amendment to limit a prime minister to two terms.

TISZA's leader announced the preparation of their election programme through social consultations and work from 65 groups. He also declared the start of recruiting candidates for the 106 single-member districts. The opposition portal Telex dubbed this the "political X-factor". Candidates should be patriotic, have fresh ideas, and possess talent.

The momentum of TISZA is impressive. Magyar has surpassed Fidesz-KDNP in two consecutive polls. While the margin of error is close, the upcoming months could work in Magyar's favour over Orbán.

His emergence on the political scene has intensified polarisation. His main voter base according to a 21 Kutatóközpont survey is the existing opposition (13%) and a small percentage of undecided voters (6%). Only 3% of voters have defected from Fidesz-KDNP. The polls suggest that only Fidesz and TISZA have a realistic chance of entering parliament, representing two right-wing entities.

This situation is reminiscent of years ago when Fidesz and Jobbik battled for dominance on the right, with Jobbik ultimately losing.

Orbán refers to Magyar as a potential puppet government figure, supposedly controlled by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European People's Party leader Manfred Weber, of which TISZA is a member. This narrative mirrors the 2022 election campaign when the prime minister warned that the opposition would involve Hungary in a war; this rhetoric is now linked to Magyar.

The optimism surrounding Magyar in European public opinion conflicts with systemic realities. The electoral system has been structured over the years to ensure Fidesz-KDNP’s victory even if they technically secure fewer seats.

Hungary's electoral system is complex, with voters choosing candidates on two lists: national (93 MPs) and single-member districts (106 MPs). The law awards bonuses to both winners and losers, resulting in millions of "mathematical" votes influencing the final parliamentary seat distribution, benefiting Fidesz-KDNP.

A further issue is present. Even if TISZA were to win an election, securing more MPs, the governance would likely face stalemate. Since the 1990s, Hungary has had quasi-constitutional laws requiring a two-thirds majority (133 MPs) for amendments. While initially only a few, since 2010, Fidesz-KDNP has classified every politically significant law with this amendment requirement.

This effectively prevents changes to not only the constitution, but also the electoral law, family legislation, or criminal codes.

The key challenge for Magyar is to eventually explain how he intends to overcome this hurdle. It's seemingly impossible for him to defy Fidesz on democratic grounds sufficiently to reshape Hungary entirely.